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THE WEATHER FOR VIBES! - too early to believe, but...


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#1 gdradio

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 02:15 PM

Cooler temperatures now, hope the trend of improving forecast continues! (07/07)
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Now they say showers on Saturday, but the inches (.15) is favorable... (07/05)
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so far it looks decent! (07/04)
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maybe I'll update this daily so y'all can see how much it changes as the dates approach

#2 Tim the Beek

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 02:29 PM

Wow! It ain't exactly 2010, but if that holds up, I won't be upset...be nice if the rain on Thursday held off long enough to get camp set up.

#3 Dr. StrangeHat

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 02:33 PM

When it comes to long-range forecasts, they're usually more accurate on the temperatures than they are on the preciptation. So, if that's the case, I'll take it. Anything south of 95 degrees is already better than last year.

#4 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 02:46 PM

:boogie:

If we get those temps Im actually going to catch music this year!!

#5 Dr. StrangeHat

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 03:02 PM

Looking at the bigger picture (and yes, this is still insanely early and probably only 5% accurate), but it looks like folks might be setting up camp on wet ground. But, based on this, I'm guessing the rain forecasted on Thursday is for the morning, so the weekend as a whole should be fantastic is this pans out. Just remember to bring a tarp to put under your tent (always good advise regardless of the forecast).


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#6 Java Time

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 03:42 PM

that would be awesome...let's wait n see.

but anything is better than last year!

#7 Lazy Lightning

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 04:07 PM

Yes, keep us updated! :clapping:

#8 JBetty

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 04:23 PM

but anything is better than last year!



Oh shit - don't say that!! :spank: We'll end up with a tornado or something horrible.

#9 Java Time

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 04:36 PM

Oh shit - don't say that!! :spank: We'll end up with a tornado or something horrible.


OK...sorry :shamed:

But don't say we'll end up with a tornado or something horrible or we'll end up with a tornado or something horrible!!! :joker:

Noreaster Thursday?!?

#10 JBetty

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 04:47 PM

tsunami

#11 Sneaker_Pumpernickel

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 05:37 PM

gonna be swampy while the rain is drying up :)

#12 mountain mama

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 06:39 PM

derecho! :fly:

...looking good...

#13 jimbo02816

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 07:51 PM

Monday the 16th we'll know. Before that, it's a crap shoot.

#14 JBetty

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 07:53 PM

:lol:


Unless predictions are wrong, which they frequently are.

Like just last week they said the next day would be hot and sunny and it was grey all day and we got a shower. :dunno:
It'll be weather. You'll know it when it gets here.

#15 VSCT

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Posted 04 July 2012 - 12:10 AM



#16 sums

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Posted 04 July 2012 - 03:01 AM

this will be my 11th vibes. the only year my husband came out was 2010. i asked him if he was ever going to come again and he said no because he got the perfect weather that year :lol:

#17 nancykind

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Posted 04 July 2012 - 03:36 AM

:lol:

i have really good luck on all fronts - haaa! - using weather.com's 10-day forecast. i've used it a bunch of times for my florida fests and it hasn't been wrong yet in fact. :thup: i haven't checked in yet though. soon. :coffee:

:crazy:

#18 gdradio

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 09:57 AM

07/05 bump

#19 Tabbooma

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 11:19 AM

Last year the weather was great right up to a couple days before the vibes and than that thing rolled in, like a giant Rhino and sat on Tabbooma's head, not easy to breath with a giant Rhino on ones head, that is for sure ;)

#20 jimbo02816

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 11:52 AM

Well Talbbooma, Jimbo is lucky to be alive after last year's bakefest. I missed over half the bands, didn't get to see Further or Tedeschi/Trucks...at least when I was in the medical tent I could hear the music. From my oven (campsite) couldn't hear a thing.Posted Image

#21 jimbo02816

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 12:04 PM

This is what I just researched for Bridgeport..it only goes up to the 19th but......http://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/bridgeport/ext

#22 gdradio

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 12:25 PM

Last year the weather was great right up to a couple days before the vibes and than that thing rolled in, like a giant Rhino and sat on Tabbooma's head, not easy to breath with a giant Rhino on ones head, that is for sure ;)


yes. still love Vibes no matter what ... but last year it was more about surviving and hydrating than anything!

#23 Occifer Boland

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Posted 05 July 2012 - 12:46 PM

that forecast on top.. shows showers for the saturday with 0.15 of precipitation... that's nothing.. kind of a passing shower.. still 2 weeks out, though.. so much can change... last weeks forecast for this week showed temperatures cooling down... it's already 90 degrees at the jersey shore... i dont trust any forecast until 3 - 5 days before event

#24 gdradio

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 12:48 PM

Higher temperatures now, less humidity though. as long as THAT sticks, we will enjoy the evenings! (07/06)
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#25 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 12:59 PM

Those f&^%((S at the league office better call in a favor to the weather gods.

#26 Smiles

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 01:04 PM

Well Talbbooma, Jimbo is lucky to be alive after last year's bakefest. I missed over half the bands, didn't get to see Further or Tedeschi/Trucks...at least when I was in the medical tent I could hear the music. From my oven (campsite) couldn't hear a thing.Posted Image

Is he icing down her va-jayjay?

#27 Luvsdaizies

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 01:09 PM

:giveup:

#28 jimbo02816

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 01:21 PM

Hey here's an idea...let's not take a chance and move the fest to northern Minnesota or Michigan. There's still time and the weather is sure to be cooler there....Posted Image

#29 Occifer Boland

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 01:45 PM

i am good with anything up to 95.. especially with low humidity..

#30 Java Time

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 02:02 PM

last year wouldn't have been so bad if there was no partying going on....I don't recall Thursday being unbearable.

#31 Joker

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 02:20 PM

:giveup:

:lol:

Please know that, despite the griping about you fucks at the league office, all the work you guys do is greatly appreciated. :loveeye:

#32 tyedyedee

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 02:39 PM

:lol:

Please know that, despite the griping about you fucks at the league office, all the work you guys do is greatly appreciated. :loveeye:


careful jack, your hippie is showing...you dont wanna ruin your rep *this* close to vibes :funny1: :heart:

as far as the weather, i trust NOAA
they dont speculate more than 2 weeks out and this is what they say for our period
its very vague but basically says (i think) we will have normal summer weather...some of you will meterological smahts can translate but i am pretty sure it says "kinda hot with a chance of showers"

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 13 - 19 2012

THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BROADENS AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD RELATIVE
TO ITS MEAN POSITION IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS ALSO NOTABLY WEAKER IN THE 8-14 PERIOD THAN THE 6-10 DAY
MEAN.

THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EXPECTED FOR WEEK 2 SHOW THE EFFECT OF THE EXPECTED
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NEW
ENGLAND. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS,
FAVORING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHEAST, AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM WESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

THE EXPECTED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, TOGETHER WITH THE REMNANT
OF A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD MAY ENHANCE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THIS ELEVATES CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES, UNDER AN EXPECTED BUILDING RIDGE.
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE TO THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CHANCES FOR
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. NAEFS SUGGEST
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA, WITH THE CHANCES FOR
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ENHANCED IN THE NORTH.



THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE
FROM 1 TO 5, WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET BY INDICATIONS OF AN EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE ANOMALY PATTERN WHICH MAY RESULT IN CHANGING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE
PERIOD.

#33 Mindbender

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 02:44 PM

Paging Occifer Boland... please pick up the white courtesy telephone... Occifer Boland...

#34 Joker

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 02:53 PM

careful jack, your hippie is showing...you dont wanna ruin your rep *this* close to vibes :funny1: :heart:

:lol: Smartass

That's why I made sure to throw in the "you fucks" part. I don't want people to get the impression that I'm one of you damn rainbow and unicorn lovin' hippie types ;)

:joker:

#35 Terrapin Station

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 03:07 PM

Mid to upper 90's, Im telling ya. :coffee:

#36 Occifer Boland

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 03:14 PM

Paging Occifer Boland... please pick up the white courtesy telephone... Occifer Boland...

Hey y'all... i also trust the NOAA weather forecasts., most notably the forecast models they use to determine their thinking.. At this point, over 10 days out, they are rarely close to correct... they put all that mumbo jumbo in their analysis and basically repeat themselved throughout... what it is basically saying is that this coming week will be the better of the month.. temperatures will go down as a cold front sweeps through the midwest then heads east by sunday/monday... then for the week after.. a warm front will take over again.. bringing warmer temperature to the northeast... From my thinking now.. it looks like low 90's.. low humidity for vibes, as the front that will pass through is NOT bringing tropical air..

#37 Mindbender

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 03:17 PM

Who says the police never show up when called? And bearing good news too. Thanks Occifer!

#38 Occifer Boland

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 03:23 PM

no problem... i will feel much better about my forecast by this coming wednesday... the past two days, i have been observing the various weather models and data that meteorologists use.. and for the bridgeport area.. it has changed 3 times.. one model had rain for thursday.. then sunny ... then rain again.. now sunny.. temperatures, i do feel confident , will be mid 90's at the highest... comfortable nights.. around 70 - 75

#39 sums

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 05:05 PM

way better than last year when it was in the mid 90s at night!

#40 Tabbooma

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 05:39 PM

Going to be a hot one tomorrow... Tabbooma will start his weather dance tonight and see if it works. ;)

#41 tyedyedee

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Posted 06 July 2012 - 08:33 PM

low humidity would be nice :bliss:

#42 Occifer Boland

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Posted 07 July 2012 - 01:18 AM

too bad we can't get the weather for vibes that is one week earlier.. next thursday thru sunday.. supposed to be sunny, low 80's.. mid 60's at night.. perfect festival weather.. i'm still thinking low 90's...low humidity for Vibes

#43 tyedyedee

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Posted 07 July 2012 - 01:25 AM

yup
bone dry on thursday and sunday morning would make it perfect for me
thats my first choice
the rest is just gravy :bliss:

#44 jimbo02816

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Posted 07 July 2012 - 11:47 AM

Here's the latest from what I've found: take it for what it's worth: http://www.myforecas...01&metric=false

#45 gdradio

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Posted 07 July 2012 - 12:48 PM

Cooler temperatures now, hope the trend of improving forecast continues! (07/07)
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#46 Tabbooma

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Posted 08 July 2012 - 12:04 AM

Never under estimate the power of the dance ;)

#47 kenbud

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Posted 08 July 2012 - 12:14 AM

It's gonna rain awesomeness!

#48 JBetty

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Posted 10 July 2012 - 06:50 PM

Never under estimate the power of the dance ;)



Should have done the dance last year to keep the giant rhinos at bay.

#49 Lazy Lightning

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Posted 10 July 2012 - 07:11 PM

It's going to be perfect this year - a repeat of 2010 - that's my prediction, anyways!

#50 JBetty

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Posted 10 July 2012 - 07:21 PM

Whatever Lola Wants :wink: