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C'mon, Baby! Lets do the Twist!


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#1 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 12:45 PM

Like we did last summer! :boogie: :lmao:

http://www.marketwat...=MW_latest_news

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve is likely to extend its Operation Twist program at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, a growing number of Fed watchers said over the weekend.
“We now expect the Fed to ease policy further at next week’s meeting,” Barclays Capital economist Dean Maki said in a note to clients. “We see a short-term extension of Operation Twist as the most likely outcome.”

Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said more and more economists were jumping on the “bandwagon” of an extended Twist.
The move would serve several purposes, but would mainly show the Fed’s resolve to act and help shore up confidence, said Millan Mulraine, economist at TD Securities.
The current $400 billion Twist program is set to expire at the end of June. It gets its name from the Fed trying to twist the yield curve by selling short-term securities that it holds while buying longer-term securities.
Analysts said the Fed has about $180 billion of short-term Treasurys left to sell. There was some speculation that the Fed might buy mortgage-backed securities in the new round.

#2 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 12:46 PM

They predict no QE3, but I think that is exactly what the fed will do.

#3 Julius

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 01:30 PM

I'm a dedicated Fed-watcher, sort of have to be unfortunately. This week's meeting is very interesting because they're a bit castrated by Europe right now. I don't think you'll see any aggressive policy changes. Maybe an extension of twist with existing funds, no new funds committed to it, and no QE3.

#4 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 01:45 PM

We'll know on Wednesday. An extension, with funds, or the possibility (in my opinion, the high probability) of more QE will be announced. Twist can not end now. The flow at the end of the long curve signals sharp increases. As the other article is showing regarding the bond market, rates and the feds position as a market actor.

#5 Julius

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 07:19 PM

There is something else they could do that Krugman and some others have suggested, not likely IMO but it would sure light a fire under the markets so it is possible. . . change the inflation target range from 0-2% to 0-4%. I know you would hate that but I would love it.

#6 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 07:22 PM

Well, that is a great way to further destroy wealth, increase prices and discourage savings. But it would certainly be nice instant gratification for the gamblers.

#7 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 07:23 PM

And as far as Krugman goes, i think this about sums it right up nicely.


Posted Image

#8 Julius

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 07:25 PM

I know we'll never agree on these things but I totally appreciate that we can have a civil argument!

I want to see a MUCH weaker dollar but it seems to be going the other way.

#9 Julius

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 07:27 PM

on a lighter note. . . trader slang for a fed week like this one is "THE MONSTER TRUCK RALLY" because you never know what's going to get crushed.

#10 Julius

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 07:35 PM

we just have different opinions about which major problem to solve first. Yours is totally legit but I think reducing the debt load is the most important and there's no easier way to do that than to inflate it away. Of course, I do recognize the costs of that, I just think it's a fair price to pay rather than cutting the living fuck out of the budget.

#11 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 07:38 PM

I know we'll never agree on these things but I totally appreciate that we can have a civil argument!

I want to see a MUCH weaker dollar but it seems to be going the other way.


That is because, we can disagree and be respectful about it. Rather than the alternative. Plus, I like hearing your side of things in markets, econ, etc...I certainly do not agree with you often, but I respect your opinion.

Even though you're wrong. :funny1:

#12 PeaceFrog

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 09:24 PM

how you remain civil to a character like this one I might never know. you must be a saint.

#13 PeaceFrog

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 09:25 PM

St. Julius of Gomorrah

#14 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 11:37 PM

we just have different opinions about which major problem to solve first. Yours is totally legit but I think reducing the debt load is the most important and there's no easier way to do that than to inflate it away. Of course, I do recognize the costs of that, I just think it's a fair price to pay rather than cutting the living fuck out of the budget.


Actually, we do agree on the issue of major importance. We just do not see the solutions in the same way. Here is what we should do to reduce debt loads from every aspect IMO.

First, we have to realize that interest rates can not remain this low forever. That i what the fed is fighting now. To keep our credit lines extended. When, and I do mean when, confidence is lost in our repayment abilities and credit dries up, the rates will inevitably go up. Probably quite sharply. As you know the feds ability to keep interest rates low is predicated on commitment to contain inflation.

I say, lets raise rates now and tighten the belt significantly. It's going happen one way or the other so in my mind we should do it on our terms. This means bringing insolvency to the table. We need to admit we're bankrupt and work out ways to pay our debts on terms we bring to the table, instead of being forced. Neither of these measures are "good", but necessity begets good. We admit we're not going to meet our obligations and begin the process selection for who is getting a hair cut, and what obligations it will meet.

If we try to inflate this away we'll only destroy wealth. But I know why you want to do it. In the scheme of currency wars it actually makes sense internationally. It extends our credit and robs our lenders. But it also robs the american people of their wealth.. That is unacceptable to me.

#15 Spidergawd

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Posted 19 June 2012 - 02:15 PM

how you remain civil to a character like this one I might never know. you must be a saint.


Please don't troll a civil discussion. We need more of them.

#16 PeaceFrog

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 02:15 AM

And as far as Krugman goes, i think this about sums it right up nicely.


Posted Image

That is because, we can disagree and be respectful about it. Rather than the alternative. Plus, I like hearing your side of things in markets, econ, etc...I certainly do not agree with you often, but I respect your opinion.

Even though you're wrong. :funny1:

Please don't troll a civil discussion. We need more of them.


Why am I being singled out and accused of trolling?

TASB started this thread and then trolled in at least 2 different posts afterward.

He gets a free pass to troll because he can't possibly be taken seriously. I, on the other hand, am asked not to troll.

yeah, I'm trolling by standing up for what most people believe in but are too busy or too kind to take a dipwit like him seriously.

fine. carry on with your ron paul orgy into derpville. not like it makes a big difference in the grand scheme of things anyway. nothing does.

#17 Julius

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 10:41 AM

I can never sleep the day before the monster truck rally. There's a certain feeling of total helplessness.

#18 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 10:51 AM

I think it is fairly safe as to what the fed will do next. The question I suppose becomes, what will be the unseen consequences (or perhaps predicted by some) of those actions.

#19 Julius

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 10:55 AM

There's this organization I follow that sets vegas-style odds for financial events and they are scary accurate. They have twist extension at 50%, twist + QE at 20% and and neither at 30%.

#20 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 11:02 AM

Twist extension is a given. QE would not surprise me, but im willing to bet the fed knows that those efforts are best left for rallying. Just a hint of QE spurs action. Although, it generally does not last. Then again, QE doesn't appear to work either.

#21 Spidergawd

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 12:45 PM

Why am I being singled out and accused of trolling?

TASB started this thread and then trolled in at least 2 different posts afterward.

He gets a free pass to troll because he can't possibly be taken seriously. I, on the other hand, am asked not to troll.

yeah, I'm trolling by standing up for what most people believe in but are too busy or too kind to take a dipwit like him seriously.

fine. carry on with your ron paul orgy into derpville. not like it makes a big difference in the grand scheme of things anyway. nothing does.


Gee, let's see.

1. Thread starts, with legitimate topic.
2. Civil, reasoned discourse on the subject ensues, sans namecalling, off topic rants or ad hominem attacks.
3. You enter thread and your first post reads "how you remain civil to a character like this one I might never know. you must be a saint", which has ZERO relevance to the subject and is a clear shot at another participant.

Do you get it now?

Disclaimer: Nothing against you personally. I'm no RP supporter, and in fact I often share your point of view. However, as you may have noticed, your tactics have earned you a top spot on many people's ignore list. This effectively removes your points from consideration, which is, IMO, unfortunate. Please don't play the "what did I do, I'm just participating in the discussion" card. I think you're smarter than that.

#22 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 01:12 PM

You've got to realize that PF is not here for civil discourse, he is here to deliberately derail it and get reactions. No friends at home, likes arguing and has no one to do it with....who knows. But the point is he is not here to enhance the discussions. He is here to drain the energy out of them and the participants by any means necessary.

#23 Spidergawd

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 01:41 PM

You've got to realize that PF is not here for civil discourse, he is here to deliberately derail it and get reactions. No friends at home, likes arguing and has no one to do it with....who knows. But the point is he is not here to enhance the discussions. He is here to drain the energy out of them and the participants by any means necessary.


You could be right. May be likely, in fact. But I figure it can't hurt to spell out the issue as I see it in hopes the message will be heard.

You, my friend, have learned not to take the bait. You'll make a good fish in your next life. :funny1:

#24 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 01:54 PM

I'll take the bait if I want to snag PF's line deep under a rock. But it does grow old and boring over time. When he first started coming back around the board, i actually thought he genuinely enjoyed these discussions, but after a PM consultation with Brahnold DHS, it was apparent that he was deliberately dragging convos through the mud simply for the reactions he might be able to muster. At which point I stopped engaging the derp with any seriousness adn instead gave him what he wanted from time to time. Someone to fling poo with.

#25 TEO

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 01:59 PM

Fun fact: When you quote someone, their quoted post becomes view-able to those who have that person on ignore.

#26 Tim the Beek

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 02:03 PM

Fun fact: When you quote someone, their quoted post becomes view-able to those who have that person on ignore.


One of the things I love about the boards. :lol:

And that when you automatically get logged out for no reason, everyone's posts are visible. :lol: :lol:

#27 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 02:55 PM

The suspense of the announcement is better than any great suspense movie. These are interesting times we live in, I'll give it that much.

#28 deadheadskier

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 04:45 PM

Gee, let's see.

1. Thread starts, with legitimate topic.
2. Civil, reasoned discourse on the subject ensues, sans namecalling, off topic rants or ad hominem attacks.
3. You enter thread and your first post reads "how you remain civil to a character like this one I might never know. you must be a saint", which has ZERO relevance to the subject and is a clear shot at another participant.

Do you get it now?

Disclaimer: Nothing against you personally. I'm no RP supporter, and in fact I often share your point of view. However, as you may have noticed, your tactics have earned you a top spot on many people's ignore list. This effectively removes your points from consideration, which is, IMO, unfortunate. Please don't play the "what did I do, I'm just participating in the discussion" card. I think you're smarter than that.


bingo

and I'll openly admit that Peacefrog is not only at the top of my ignore list, but the only person who has ever had a spot on it. Occasionally I browse when not logged in or read a quoted post of his and nothing I've read has encouraged me that his input is worth reading on any topic, pretty much ever.

why?

You've got to realize that PF is not here for civil discourse, he is here to deliberately derail it and get reactions. No friends at home, likes arguing and has no one to do it with....who knows. But the point is he is not here to enhance the discussions. He is here to drain the energy out of them and the participants by any means necessary.


Because of this. Peacefrog has openly admitted that his main purpose is to troll the boards and get a reaction out of people. I would say that he went to the Habit school of Vibes Board posting, but his efforts are far beyond anything I've ever seen out of Habit and occur on a daily basis.

You could be right. May be likely, in fact. But I figure it can't hurt to spell out the issue as I see it in hopes the message will be heard.

You, my friend, have learned not to take the bait. You'll make a good fish in your next life. :funny1:


I've tried to spell that out for him. It's worthless. It will not change, so on ignore he shall remain. It makes reading P&R discussions better, but I'm no where near the active participant in such topics as I once was because I'd say they went completely downhill last fall and have never really recovered. I notice a tremendous amount of other formerly active P&R contributors who no longer bother with the discussions, which is unfortunate as they are typically very important topics in day to day life; not just typical board fools comments shenanigans among friends.

Though I would disagree with the notion that TASB is a good fish. He takes Peacefrogs bait far to often, but I know it's more for his personal amusement than Peacefrog actually luring TASB into a discussion he would ever take seriously with. I know I'd enjoy TASB's threads more if he just put Peacefrog on ignore, but that's his prerogative.

#29 Joker

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 05:07 PM

I know I'd enjoy TASB's threads more if I just put TASB on ignore, but that's my prerogative.


:turnip:

#30 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 05:12 PM

I wonder if i can put myself on ignore?

#31 Joker

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 05:13 PM

Who said that?

#32 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 05:14 PM

:lol:

#33 Julius

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 05:18 PM

Downgrade of economy, Twist extended through end of year, more than I expected. Seeds sewn for potential QE, IMO, but you really have to parse their words with great care to find that in there. They mentioned forecast for unemployment up and inflation down, which implies they have room to act on QE within their existing mandate. But inferring that is like code-breaking and the market seems to be doing that now.

#34 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 05:21 PM

That's the game now. The fed can merely hint at something, especially cheap money, and it drives the market. I bet Helicopter Ben absolutely adores the power he weilds over markets at this point.

#35 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 05:35 PM

I'll make one more prediciton on this. Operation Twist will be extended indefinitely. As the other article I posted from zerohedge points out why that is.

#36 Tim the Beek

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 05:43 PM

...and inflation down, which...


It's terribly convenient that the inflation numbers say whatever the BLS wants them to say, innit?

Hedonic'd

#37 PeaceFrog

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 08:02 PM

so it isn't satisfying enough just to ignore me?

Why do you all seem to take delight in trash talking about me in PMs and trying to recruit others into your ignore PeaceFrog club.

And yeah, you all deserve a medal for "not taking the bait" because you're so damn good at it... for example this thread.

Anyway, you people are huge hypocrites for attacking me personally, and it's just typical human behavior that you don't see it in yourselves.

but... if that's what it takes to make you feel good about yourselves, then you should actually be thanking me for giving you someone to point at and condescend upon.

(((rubes)))

#38 PeaceFrog

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 08:10 PM

I wouldn't be surprised if some of you really signed up for text alerts every time I post but just say that you've got me on ignore.

#39 PeaceFrog

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 08:12 PM

And there's the punchline morans. If you don't think it's funny then it's only because it's true.

#40 Julius

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 08:13 PM

PF, I don't ever take sides in personal conflicts. But everyone else is talking about the issues and you are talking about yourself.

#41 PeaceFrog

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 08:22 PM

yes, I see that and it's sad that you have such gang mentality.

my name was never personally mentioned in this thread until I participated, so I guess you could blame me for "taking the bait"

why aren't you to blame for laying the bait out for me?

#42 TEO

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 08:41 PM

:bang:

#43 Spidergawd

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Posted 21 June 2012 - 12:32 PM

so it isn't satisfying enough just to ignore me?

Why do you all seem to take delight in trash talking about me in PMs and trying to recruit others into your ignore PeaceFrog club.

And yeah, you all deserve a medal for "not taking the bait" because you're so damn good at it... for example this thread.

Anyway, you people are huge hypocrites for attacking me personally, and it's just typical human behavior that you don't see it in yourselves.

but... if that's what it takes to make you feel good about yourselves, then you should actually be thanking me for giving you someone to point at and condescend upon.

(((rubes)))


Excuse me friend, I have NOT trash talked you. I'm trying to point out, as I see it, why you're quickly becoming persona non grata around here. I clearly stated, even, that I often AGREE with your points of view, and it's a shame that they are completely lost due to your behavior. And I'm beginning to realize you can't even help yourself, can you? Nobody said a fucking word about you in this thread until you came wearing your dickhat and started trying to stir up shit.

yes, I see that and it's sad that you have such gang mentality.

my name was never personally mentioned in this thread until I participated, so I guess you could blame me for "taking the bait"

why aren't you to blame for laying the bait out for me?


As I alluded to above, WHAT FUCKING BAIT WAS LAID OUT FOR YOU?? You weren't even MENTIONED here until you showed up acting like a sociopathic asshole.

And there's the punchline morans. If you don't think it's funny then it's only because it's true.


Nice. I'm done with you. I respected from where you were coming, tried to nudge you towards actual productive participation, which I think could lend value to the conversation, and yet you just can't help but fan the flames and call names. Enjoy your isolation. I hope it's worth it.

#44 PeaceFrog

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Posted 22 June 2012 - 08:30 PM

anyone else's panties twisted?