European military leaders are saying a strike by Israel could delay Iran's nuclear bomb-making program by 10 years. US military types, on condition of anonymity, are saying more like 2-3 years.
This is going to happen, people. It's just a matter of when.
Iran
Started by
Julius
, Feb 22 2012 08:03 PM
66 replies to this topic
#2
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- VibeTribe
- 16,761 posts
Posted 22 February 2012 - 08:11 PM
Yep. The old "WMD" thing again. Suite, except they don't have them and the International Atomic Energy Agency team hasn't established anything new by the latest report that officials are touting as evidence to the contrary. This has been part of the plan for years and years.
Get ready.
Get ready.
#6
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- VibeTribe
- 8,415 posts
Posted 22 February 2012 - 08:17 PM
You guys could well be right about an election delay. But Israel doesn't care too much about US elections when it perceives a security risk.
I think it will be a strategic decision of opportunity, like the reactor in Syria. Remember that last year? They waited for all the top N.Korean physicists to visit the reactor, then bombed them all to hell.
I think it will be a strategic decision of opportunity, like the reactor in Syria. Remember that last year? They waited for all the top N.Korean physicists to visit the reactor, then bombed them all to hell.
is rumored to be in rehab for steroid addiction, I'll say it for him.
#11
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- VibeTribe
- 8,026 posts
- Locationthe Island
Posted 22 February 2012 - 10:48 PM
What happens if we don't send Egypt their next payment?
Israel will prolly take them out too...maybe this is just what the Dr. ordered...maybe that part of the world will see that we ain't so bad...prolly not...but maybe
#12
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- VibeTribe
- 16,761 posts
Posted 22 February 2012 - 10:53 PM
It hasn't worked for +65 years and a highly doubt it's gonna change. They are a religious people and should (a little late now) be addressed only in good diplomacy and trade. Frankly, I have no vested interest in Israel that is paramount, and she is a strong state. They should be free to defend themselves. It isn't our job to intervene or hold them back. We're broken, spread thin, used up, need a breather.....
#16
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- VibeTribe
- 16,761 posts
Posted 22 February 2012 - 11:11 PM
Iranian Pastor Sentenced to Death: Nadarkhani Refuses to Convert
http://www.presstv.i...ail/202870.html
Denied
Execution Orders Issued for Pastor Youcef Nadarkhani
Check the dates at the link going from top/old, bottom/new....
This is not going to be good.........nope.
By Daniel D. Tovrov | September 29, 2011 10:35 AM EDT
Iranian Pastor Youcef Nadarkhani, who is facing the death penalty, again refused to convert to Islam to save his life.
Nadarkhani was arrested in 2009 for the crime of apostasy because he allegedly abandoned Islam for Christianity. As a pastor, Iranian clerics believe that Nadarkhani was preaching in order to convert Muslims.
http://www.presstv.i...ail/202870.html
Denied
Execution Orders Issued for Pastor Youcef Nadarkhani
We are hearing reports from our contacts in Iran that the execution orders for Christian Pastor Youcef Nadarkhani may have been issued.
Pastor Youcef’s situation – an innocent man convicted and sentenced to death for becoming a Christian – has not been this dire since we first brought his case to your attention last year.
It is unclear whether Pastor Youcef would have a right of appeal from the execution order. We know that the head of Iran’s Judiciary, Ayatollah Sadegh Larijani, must approve publicly held executions, but only a small percentage of executions are held public—most executions in Iran are conducted in secret.
There has also been a disturbing increase in the number of executions conducted by the Iranian regime in the last month.
Iran is actively violating its human rights obligations by sentencing and detaining Pastor Youcef Nadarkhani. We call on the Iranian government to release Pastor Youcef immediately.
Check the dates at the link going from top/old, bottom/new....
This is not going to be good.........nope.
#22
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- VibeTribe
- 14,580 posts
- Locationatlantic ocean
Posted 23 February 2012 - 12:12 AM
This^…ya think the middle east would at least blame Russia China France and England too...western infidels doesn't count.
we're the aggressors...in their eyes
iran has never attacked us...they just talk a lot of shit...but following the ol' bush doctrine we now attack pre-emptively
fear rules all
#27
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- VibeTribe
- 7,560 posts
Posted 23 February 2012 - 01:26 AM
Obama would not have the garbanzos to criticize an Israeli offensive attack in a presidential election year.
You're right. And he'd be - pardon the hyperbole - "crucified" by the right if he dared question Israel's actions. That said, I bet there's a full court press by Biden and Clinton to get Israel to restrain themselves. I understand they're unlikely to do that under most circumstances, but given the fragile state of the world economies, there are some real global ramifications if we whack that hornet's nest. We've already seen the oil market spike just from sanctions. Most of that is probably opportunistic speculation, but it's not something we need right now.
#28
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- VibeTribe
- 8,415 posts
Posted 23 February 2012 - 01:31 AM
I'm thinking quick, clean, surgical strike. No war.
We should be grateful to Israel for keeping us out of it.
http://opinion.latim...ign-policy.html
plus new US troop buildup in Israel, mostly specialists in advanced ordinance.
= put 2 & 2 together.
We should be grateful to Israel for keeping us out of it.
http://opinion.latim...ign-policy.html
plus new US troop buildup in Israel, mostly specialists in advanced ordinance.
= put 2 & 2 together.
#31
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- VibeTribe
- 7,560 posts
Posted 23 February 2012 - 01:49 AM
I'm thinking 2 stages:
1. Take out as many top scientists as possible, assassinate the top ones prior to the strike (already in progress)
2. Stealth bomb reactor/material/scientific sites. A one-day/night event.
1. Happening
2. Not as easy as it sounds http://www.nytimes.c...?pagewanted=all
3. The fallout from whacking the nest: increased tensions in the region, Iran trying to retaliate or cut off oil traffic, etc.
#33
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- VibeTribe
- 710 posts
Posted 23 February 2012 - 01:53 AM
If there is a strike, all of their immediate offensive capability will have to be crippled in order to prevent strikes on our local forces and Israel. I would suspect a couple weeks of crippling airstrikes and cruise missile strikes.
Unless if Iran pre-emptively strikes. Then there will be a long drawn out occupation.
Unless if Iran pre-emptively strikes. Then there will be a long drawn out occupation.
#35
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- VibeTribe
- 8,415 posts
Posted 23 February 2012 - 02:00 AM
1. Happening
2. Not as easy as it sounds http://www.nytimes.c...?pagewanted=all
3. The fallout from whacking the nest: increased tensions in the region, Iran trying to retaliate or cut off oil traffic, etc.
I've read #2 before. I'm using different assumptions than that writer. He assumes F15/F16s, while I assume stealth bombing, perhaps even by experimental aircraft. I doubt an F15/16 could even carry the proper ordinance (GBU-43 MOAB) or its new successor.
#36
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- VibeTribe
- 8,415 posts
Posted 23 February 2012 - 02:08 AM
If there is a strike, all of their immediate offensive capability will have to be crippled in order to prevent strikes on our local forces and Israel. I would suspect a couple weeks of crippling airstrikes and cruise missile strikes.
Unless if Iran pre-emptively strikes. Then there will be a long drawn out occupation.
I don't know beerz, I'm thinking about the diplomatic part of all this. Syria took its beating without a word of protest or retaliation, because if you attack Israel, you declare war on the US.
#37
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- VibeTribe
- 7,560 posts
Posted 23 February 2012 - 02:18 AM
It's a fool's game all around to think there's a quick military solution to Iran. I think that's about as naive as Wolfowitz (supposedly the smartest guy in the Bush administration) claiming that the Iraq war would take 6 months and pay for itself with oil revenues. And, Israel or not, the U.S. public does not have the stomach or patience for another drawn out war in the region. I think the majority of the public would prefer that Israel go it alone if it comes down to that. Yes, AIPAC wields tremendous influence, but I think the general public could give a shit about going there to protect Israel.
#38
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- VibeTribe
- 16,761 posts
Posted 23 February 2012 - 02:19 AM
It's a fool's game all around to think there's a quick military solution to Iran. I think that's about as naive as Wolfowitz (supposedly the smartest guy in the Bush administration) claiming that the Iraq war would take 6 months and pay for itself with oil revenues. And, Israel or not, the U.S. public does not have the stomach or patience for another drawn out war in the region. I think the majority of the public would prefer that Israel go it alone if it comes down to that. Yes, AIPAC wields tremendous influence, but I think the general public could give a shit about going there to protect Israel.
Thanks, seany. I'm sayin'. It isn't even remotely that clean. Some of us haven't learned.
#39
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- VibeTribe
- 10,581 posts
Posted 23 February 2012 - 05:53 AM
It's a fool's game all around to think there's a quick military solution to Iran. I think that's about as naive as Wolfowitz (supposedly the smartest guy in the Bush administration) claiming that the Iraq war would take 6 months and pay for itself with oil revenues. And, Israel or not, the U.S. public does not have the stomach or patience for another drawn out war in the region. I think the majority of the public would prefer that Israel go it alone if it comes down to that. Yes, AIPAC wields tremendous influence, but I think the general public could give a shit about going there to protect Israel.
Since when does the stomach or patience of the US public matter when it comes to war mongering? 9/11 gave convenient public support, but most Americans have wanted military operations to end in the Middle East for a long time. Our overlords will do as they please and I don't think the voice of everyday Americans can change that.
and you are 100% correct that it's a fool's game to think we (or Isreal or anyone else) could accomplish much with quick military action. In my eyes, you really only have one option, diplomacy.
#40
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- VibeTribe
- 7,560 posts
Posted 23 February 2012 - 06:03 AM
I'll agree that the masters of war generally don't care what the public thinks and generally can rally support with enough misinformation upfront. But I think we've reached a turning point - at least for the short-term. I don't think they can pull the same old smoke and mirrors as they normally do. I think the public is very much in a "won't get fooled again" stance when it comes to these wars. Maybe that only lasts for a few years, but I think that's where we're at.
#41
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- VibeTribe
- 10,581 posts
Posted 23 February 2012 - 06:14 AM
what recourse does the public have?
If Israel shells Iran tomorrow and they retaliate, the US gov't is going to jump in. No question about it. I don't think millions of people protesting nationwide will have any chance at preventing that reality.
If Israel shells Iran tomorrow and they retaliate, the US gov't is going to jump in. No question about it. I don't think millions of people protesting nationwide will have any chance at preventing that reality.
#42
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- VibeTribe
- 7,915 posts
- LocationQuiet Corner
Posted 23 February 2012 - 07:18 AM
What do you do about Russia who says if Iran is attacked they will retaliate?I'm thinking 2 stages:
1. Take out as many top scientists as possible, assassinate the top ones prior to the strike (already in progress)
2. Stealth bomb reactor/material/scientific sites. A one-day/night event.
#45
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- VibeTribe
- 10,253 posts
Posted 23 February 2012 - 08:10 PM
U.S. on guard against possible Iran plots
The FBI is pulling out all the stops on Iran. A classified nationwide conference will be held Thursday to share the assessment of the intelligence community that an attack by Iranian agents, or even a surrogate group such as Hezbollah, may be more likely in the event of an Israeli air strike on suspected Iranian nuclear facilities.
The secure video teleconference, led by FBI Assistant Director Ralph Boelter, the Bureau's top counterterrorism official, will be a 90-minute meeting with each of the 56 field offices.
The special agents in-charge of those offices will be polled on what operations they are running covering suspected Iranian agents, Hezbollah investigations and confidential sources that may yield valuable intelligence. They are also being asked to make sure their local police departments are attuned to the threat and focused on suspicious activity around government buildings, Israeli consulates in major cities and prominent Jewish organizations.
The increased concern that is driving this "leave no stone unturned" strategy has emerged from two developments: first, the assessment that Iran has increased surveillance of potential U.S. targets overseas; second, that Iran is suspected of being behind what appears to be a series of coordinated attacks against Israeli targets last week.
More
http://www.cbsnews.c...ble-iran-plots/
The FBI is pulling out all the stops on Iran. A classified nationwide conference will be held Thursday to share the assessment of the intelligence community that an attack by Iranian agents, or even a surrogate group such as Hezbollah, may be more likely in the event of an Israeli air strike on suspected Iranian nuclear facilities.
The secure video teleconference, led by FBI Assistant Director Ralph Boelter, the Bureau's top counterterrorism official, will be a 90-minute meeting with each of the 56 field offices.
The special agents in-charge of those offices will be polled on what operations they are running covering suspected Iranian agents, Hezbollah investigations and confidential sources that may yield valuable intelligence. They are also being asked to make sure their local police departments are attuned to the threat and focused on suspicious activity around government buildings, Israeli consulates in major cities and prominent Jewish organizations.
The increased concern that is driving this "leave no stone unturned" strategy has emerged from two developments: first, the assessment that Iran has increased surveillance of potential U.S. targets overseas; second, that Iran is suspected of being behind what appears to be a series of coordinated attacks against Israeli targets last week.
More
http://www.cbsnews.c...ble-iran-plots/
