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Julius- Thoughts on precious metals FFTA


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#151 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 02:38 PM

Yeah, I'm not following in detail the BRICS cross trades as far as jumping myself. I merely watch it as it is vital capital market information in the world economy. Here is the latest read on it:

http://www.capitalfm...ntries-to-rise/

Investments between China, BRICS countries to rise

Posted by AFP on April 12, 2012

HONG KONG, Apr 12 – Close economic ties among BRICS countries, especially after the New Delhi Summit, will most likely result in further cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) deals driven by Chinese companies in other four economies, said Deloitte, a well-known professional services firm, on Wednesday in its newly released report.
BRICS, grouping Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, represented a gathering of important emerging economies which were playing an increasingly big role in world economy during last decade.
Statistics showed that in 2011, 27 deals worth a total of $9.8 billion were made by Chinese bidders in the other four countries, the same number of deals that were completed in 2010.
“Chinese investment enthusiasm into the BRICS has remained strong as economic growth in these, and other emerging markets, has remained relatively intact despite global uncertainty,” said Lawrence Chia, co-chairman of Deloitte China’s global Chinese services group, in a press conference held in the day.
The aggregate GDP of the BRIC countries (before South Africa joined in late 2010) has almost quadrupled since 2001, from around $3 trillion to between $11-12 trillion in 2010.
The fourth BRICS Summit was held in New Delhi on March 28-29, under the theme of BRICS countries’ commitment to the partnership of stability, security and prosperity, where leaders of the five countries vowed to strengthen cooperation and boost inter-trade among the BRICS economies.
Deloitte forecast that emerging economies will grow by five percent in 2012, compared to a figure of 1.2 percent for developed countries.
As a co-writer of the report, namely “Lateral trades – Breathing fire into the BRICS”, Chia believed that cross-border investments between China and the other four BRICS countries will pick up over 2012 and beyond, as “comparatively more attractive growth fundamentals in the BRICS help encourage Chinese businesses to invest in those jurisdictions, as opposed to developed markets”.
The report also mentioned that “the desire to escape intense competitive pressures at home” is another reason that leads to Chinese companies’ increasing interest in acquiring in the BRICS.
“Chinese bidders are keen on acquiring energy and resources assets as China seeks to increase the supply of key commodities to support its infrastructure development and the production of consumer goods,” said Chia.
Statistics showed energy and resources sector accounted for 95 percent of the total deal value and 29 percent of the total deal volume in 2011.
Chinese consumer businesses, looking to expand into fast- growing overseas economies, became another power in the past acquisition activities.
Data showed that outbound consumer business and transportation investments into the four economies from 2009-2011 accounted for 4.5 percent of overall outbound M&A activity by value, while over the 2005-2008 period, this proportion just stood at 1.2 percent.
Meanwhile, Deloitte reminded bidders of cross-border M&A risk within the BRICS, where effective counterparty protection is likely to be lacking.
Chinese companies should gain a thorough understanding on their target markets and conduct a complete integrity due diligence on their targets and local partners, Ronald Chao, leader of financial advisory services of Deloitte China, told media.
The latest Deloitte report examines all announced M&A deals undertaken between bidders from China and targets in the BRICS from 2005-2011.

#152 Julius

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 05:56 PM

Some very large entity is speculating on both silver and gold to go up hard before the end of July today.

I don't understand it right now at all. . . it seems all the things that should drive gold forward are in a holding pattern and I sold the last of mine at a loss.

#153 PeaceFrog

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 06:09 PM

I was looking at the daily chart when this thread was first started and it looked like it was going down to me... but overall it's stuck in a range between 1550 and 1800. (which is a huge range, I know)

It's easy to analyze these things when you don't actually have any money invested...

I was ahead by 50 pips or so last week trading forex and then made a stupid greedy mistake and went against my own system again(and lost of course)... this stuff is a battle against yourself most of the time.

I have to let the trade come to me and not chase after it.

#154 PeaceFrog

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 06:19 PM

you probably know exactly where i went wrong if I told you JCS... it was the USD/JPY spike... it went crazy for a minute (literally). It dropped like 80 pips and then went way back up like 100... I lost my mind for a minute when I was watching it... I had just gotten stopped out before it went way down, and it went down so quickly that by the time I got my market order together it was already at it's bottom. Of course I had a stop set up so I was stopped out again very quickly.
now, thinking I was some kind of player I went and bought it... but that didn't work out either...
all in all I'm glad that i only play with pocket change for now.

#155 Julius

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 06:24 PM

I got nothing for you on that forex stuff. After the nuclear disaster the yen powered higher and right then I knew I'm not smart enough to do currencies.

#156 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 06:25 PM

Dollars are cheap and spending is up. It stilled steadied off around 1650. It will go up again, but it will be much slower than it was udring the last few years of economic crisis.

Will it jump hard before July? I don't know. Predictions like that entail a certain amount of fore knowledge of various things. Such as policy/actions/talk by the fed, commodity market slumps or jumps, etc.....(as if Julius doesn't know this already)

I'm holding onto my buys.
Right now, everything is down except PriceSmart Inc. Which is up 20% from my initial purchase and climbing.

#157 PeaceFrog

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 10:31 PM

The Australian Dollar vs. the US Dollar has been sinking for a while. I happen to be on the good side of a trade right now! I'm letting it run!

I know the AUD is somehow linked to the value of copper. Is copper a precious metal?

#158 PeaceFrog

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Posted 08 May 2012 - 05:25 PM

good thing you closed your position Julius. You'd still be losing.

Posted Image

Hey TASB... wait for 1550... then buy.*

*just my analysis. there is no guarantee. Always use a stop-loss. There's risk involved.

#159 PeaceFrog

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Posted 08 May 2012 - 06:22 PM

Is it possible for someone to make a decent living off of just trading?

I've been doing pretty well for the last few days buying US dollars against the NZD, the AUD, and right now the EUR.

I'm not sure if my skills are improving or I'm just having a run of luck.

#160 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 10 May 2012 - 03:03 PM

Julius - curious what thoughts you have on the OK from the federal reserve board for China's US based bank aqcuisitions.

http://www.telegraph...n-US-banks.html

Federal Reserve allows Chinese-controlled banks to take stakes in US banks



The US central bank said Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the biggest bank in China and 70.7pc owned by the government of China, will become a bank holding company.

In addition, China Investment Corporation (CIC), an investment vehicle set up by the Chinese government to invest its massive foreign exchange reserves, and another company that CIC controls called Huijin Investment will be allowed to become bank holdings companies.

They will become holding companies by taking control of The Bank of East Asia in New York, the first time a Chinese bank has been approved to acquire a US bank.

ICBC has total assets worth an estimated $2.5 trillion.

Karen Petrou, a banking analyst with Washington Research Group, said that by becoming bank holding companies, the Chinese firms will be "ring-fenced" from their home country supervisors and will be subject to US law and supervision.

#161 Julius

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Posted 11 May 2012 - 04:08 PM

TASB, fine with me as long as they're subject to US regulators, which they are. The problem with the Chinese is they lie about their accounting and they won't be able to in this case.

#162 PeaceFrog

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 04:36 AM

The Broker (FXCM) seems to be right most of the time on which currency to buy or sell, and even gives entries and exits...

they seem to be pretty good, and obviously have a lot more experience than me.

I figure that they aren't interested in steering customers wrong because they want them to be successful and continue business. There is no commissions, only the spread. They're basically hedging their money by letting traders use it... it's all pretty interesting...

and yeah I still don't know a lot about why the Yen does what it does, but it's kind of opposite what you would think... they try to keep their currency valued low over there because they do a lot of exporting or something... not sure but it might have something to do with that... maybe the central bank needed money to fix the damage after the accident... don't know really, but that sort of makes sense.

I just make sure to have a stop all the time, and if the risk/reward ratio is less than 1:2 I stay out.

For now, it's just a fun way for me to get used to reading charts and placing trades.

#163 PeaceFrog

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Posted 20 May 2012 - 06:37 AM

Posted Image

http://www.kitco.com...s/livegold.html

did anyone buy at 1550 like I said?

I'm psychic.

You owe me a beer or something TASB. I'll let you tell me the story about how the entire economy could be run on a single ounce of gold while I drink it and laugh.

Now if only I could understand why something you can't smoke is worth 1550 an ounce...

#164 PeaceFrog

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Posted 20 May 2012 - 07:40 AM

If I bought, I would sell around 1780...

the price is under the 200 period simple moving average which usually means it's in a downtrend.

It looks like it's going sideways... stuck in a range.

I'd place a protective stop at 1520

#165 PeaceFrog

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Posted 20 May 2012 - 10:46 PM

just recently learned something that is probably basic stuff for the pros... how to make a strong/weak comparison of 8 pairs by looking at the 200 Simple Moving Average on 4 hour charts. This is my analysis in order of strongest to weak

1. JPY
2. USD
3. GBP
4. EUR
5. CHF
6. CAD
7. AUD
8. NZD

Based on this, and also the speculative sentiment index which is a contrarian indicator and shows a 6:1 ratio of long to short positions, I'm selling the NZD/JPY...

#166 PeaceFrog

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 06:55 PM

Gold bounced right at 1537.50...

I said you should buy at $1550 because I figured it might not make it down that low, but anyway, now it's up to $1590...

are you jizzing in your pants?

#167 PeaceFrog

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 03:54 PM

looks like Gold is stalling around 1580 - 1590

might go back down again.

#168 PeaceFrog

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Posted 23 May 2012 - 02:42 AM

down to 1560.... if it breaks below the 1537.50 support, who the hell knows what will happen... gold could plummet and fire could fall from the skies. It could be mass chaos.

not saying I know exactly how the end of the world will play out... just throwing it out there as a possibility.

#169 PeaceFrog

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 04:05 AM

Gold just wants to linger at around $1540 - $1550... I have no idea why... a hunk of gold isn't worth $15 to me. The only value is that I can sell it.

#170 MeOmYo

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Posted 01 June 2012 - 08:37 PM

well, today sucked a big fat one

#171 PeaceFrog

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Posted 02 June 2012 - 01:11 AM

well, today sucked a big fat one


for the stock market, yes... but gold shot up $100 per ounce... (additionally, it all depends on your perspective - whether you're a bull or a bear... and as they say pigs get slaughtered)

I guess this is what they mean when they say that gold is a "safe haven"

still got a lot to learn myself... I'm not so arrogant as to think I understand it all... I'm trying, that's about it.

#172 PeaceFrog

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Posted 02 June 2012 - 02:25 AM

if only I had been able to follow my own analysis and buy at 1550...

the universe is flooded with "of onlys"

#173 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 02 June 2012 - 11:37 AM

well, today sucked a big fat one


The prop up is falling over. Quick! Pump some more money into the markets! Hair of the dog, man! Hair of the dog!!

Nothing cures a monetary inflation hangover like more monetary inflation!

#174 Tim the Beek

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Posted 02 June 2012 - 12:42 PM

I'm thinkin' 10 year Treasuries yielding 1.47% is a pretty suite investment. :lmao:

fuk'd

#175 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 07:53 PM

:lmao:

But..but...but..we can monetize more debt that way and if the federal reserve is buying 60%+ of the issuance then we're killin' it!! :lmao:

#176 PeaceFrog

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 08:09 PM

Posted Image

#177 PeaceFrog

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 08:11 PM

why do you spend so much time working for something that's worthless?

#178 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 08:23 PM

Posted Image

#179 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 08:26 PM

why do you spend so much time working for something that's worthless?


Posted Image

#180 PeaceFrog

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 08:30 PM

it's a dumb question? how so?

you call US Dollars shit tickets and complain that it's a fiat currency, yet you willingly give up your limited amount of hours on this Earth in exchange for it.

I don't think it's a dumb question at all to ask you why, even though the answer is quite obvious to me.

You just don't like admitting that you're full of shit.

#181 PeaceFrog

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 08:37 PM

I gave you my honest analysis of what I thought Gold was doing, and as it turns out I was right...

I tried to help you, and you just keep acting like a dingleberry because my honest opinion of Ron Paul is not in alignment with yours.

Your comments do not make me look stupid. They're actually more of a reflection upon your level of maturity.

#182 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 08:40 PM

Mmmmhhhmmm. :lmao:

#183 PeaceFrog

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 08:42 PM

there's obviously a lot you could learn from me

#184 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 08:43 PM

Posted Image

#185 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 08:43 PM

there's obviously a lot you could learn from me


ROFLMFAO. I no need troll schooling.

#186 PeaceFrog

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 08:44 PM

what good is gold when the zombies come to get you?

#187 PeaceFrog

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 08:46 PM

you're right, I agree, you could teach your own class on trolling.

#188 Julius

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 11:12 PM

You two should just have it out in a claymation death match. It would be good for both of you and also us because we wouldn't have to hear this sniping anymore. :bananabeer:

Hey, if I can stop bashing Spec K (like for 3+ years already) then you guys can behave too.

#189 Joker

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 11:52 PM

Who do you think you're kidding?


You only stopped because she threatened to kick your ass :kickbutt:

#190 PeaceFrog

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Posted 04 June 2012 - 01:58 AM

I seriously have nothing against TASB, but I get the feeling that he has a personal vendetta for me.

I bursted his Ron Paul bubble.

sorry for partyin.

#191 Julius

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 07:12 PM

Today's technical analysis: Oil is about to violate a triple-bottom at 81.

I really can't make this shit up.

#192 MeOmYo

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 07:17 PM

do oil companies really use this concept?

#193 Julius

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Posted 20 June 2012 - 07:24 PM

do oil companies really use this concept?


Their trading desks do. Next stop $77 and then it's a screaming buy.

#194 Julius

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 01:12 PM

Alrighty, it's vacation from the market time. We've had a nice little hope rally on Europe here and it is time for me to get the hell out of remaining positions and do some sell sell selling. Am going to hold some AAPL and some AIG and everything else is getting dumped HARD today.

#195 Julius

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 01:18 PM

so if you bought GE on my say-so, take the small gain and get the fuck out

#196 MeOmYo

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 02:57 PM

you think GE is gonna tank?

#197 Julius

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 03:08 PM

you think GE is gonna tank?


I don't see it tanking because of the fat dividend support. But it's an industrial and that whole sector trades on macro news and we just got a weak ISM manufacturing number yesterday. So I think you'll be able to get it cheaper later.

http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm

#198 MeOmYo

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 03:16 PM

gotcha

some that I've done pretty well in/out of the past few weeks: SWHC, MYL, CVO, IVN, CHK, THC, HOG, RIG & FTR. holding on to FTR

#199 Julius

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 03:25 PM

Those are some interesting ones! You got Icahn on your side with CHK.

Today's strength is a great gift to lighten up on everything. . . had intended to hold some APPL but can't pass up cashing in that puppy today.

#200 Julius

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Posted 03 July 2012 - 03:37 PM

Alright, well, I just sold everything except AIG so there's really no point in staying at work. Hey Julius, take the rest of the day off! OK Julius, that's a fine idea! :lol: