Julius- Thoughts on precious metals FFTA
Posted 13 March 2012 - 05:07 AM
It would have only been 2 bucks as opposed to hopefully 4 or 5 at least, but it was quick and easy.
any money extracted from the forex market is pretty cool in my opinion. If I could do it consistently and win I'd be thrilled.
I have sort of a conscience difficulty though... psychological thing and I believe if I could break through I'd be a sure winner.
I'm having a hard time justifying in my mind that this is really any sort of work. The understanding is coming with time, though. You're getting paid to take on a certain amount of risk for a certain amount of time. In doing so, you help stabilize the market. (I guess, that's what I've come to) Help me, Julius. Help me justify that this isn't just a lazy cheater's way out.
I don't really believe it is, though... it's difficult.
But really, all this studying and effort to actually do what besides try to line my own pocket?
I'm coming to an acceptance that this is not considered wrong at all in today's society and may in fact be considered a virtue.
I think I sabotage my trades after winning a certain amount.
Posted 13 March 2012 - 05:08 AM
I don't do much forex but can tell you the Yen is a safe-haven currency so when the world economy improves, the yen should depreciate versus most other currencies.
Kicking myself for a bunch of bad trades lately. But the only thing worse than being wrong is staying wrong.
well that trade went bad. I had my stop set at about only 10 pips... but yeah, better to lose only a little.
I definitely consider myself a complete amateur.
How did you learn Julius? Did you have formal training, or is this just what you ended up doing?
Posted 13 March 2012 - 05:12 AM
I think right now might be a good time to sell if you're into cashing in on retracements... they do move quick. It looks like a minor support was broken. I'm just going to wait, like I said... this time I'm not putting in an entry order... just going to watch it until it goes up again.
Posted 13 March 2012 - 05:26 AM
first read through I thought you turned 17 into 70, then on second read it was the other way around! sorry to hear that man... I haven't lost anything near that much yet
it's definitely like gambling... texas holdem or something... but more complicated.
Posted 13 March 2012 - 05:31 AM
I only really know enough to draw lines of support and resistance, and fibonacci tools.
I know a little bit about the indicators and the crossovers of the macd or stochastics... is any of that helpful to you? Actually, I do like using SARS (Parabolic something or other) as a guidline for where to put the stop.
Posted 13 March 2012 - 05:40 AM
but other people who already sold are starting to feel fear... how long are they willing to risk taking their profit?
it's like a game of chicken. I imagine forex is like the autobahn of trading.
if I were doing full lots this would be thousands of dollars on the line... this microlot thing is fairly new.
Posted 13 March 2012 - 05:43 AM
My technical analysis guru is Peter Reznicek at http://www.shadowtrader.net
Check out his weekly 10-ish minute video each Sunday ("weekend update") for a thorough analysis of where the technicals say the market is going (of course, news trumps technicals every time)
In order of importance: trendline, moving averages, price support level. The rest of that MACD and stochastic shit will just confuse me although channels are pretty informative (a.k.a. Bollinger bands)
I'd suggest familiarizing yourself with the things he's good at: volume profile, value areas, points of control, etc.
thanks for the reference! I take any help I can get.
The thing about forex, though, is that volume doesn't apply... there's no way of telling.
Also, with forex, there aren't any gaps because it's so liquid... there's slight differences when reading the candle charts.
I got into forex because it was easy and convenient... something to do instead of being bored.
funny story... my wife made $100 in one day starting with like only $20. She was playing very risky. I think after a period of about a week she had $1000... I thought she had some sort of gift... but then in one day she lost it ALL! I was telling her to cash out but she didn't.
Now, she's not allowed to play forex.
Posted 13 March 2012 - 06:09 AM
I just hope that in the future I might have a good chunk of change and when that time comes I'll know what to do with it.
Posted 14 March 2012 - 03:00 PM
figures that it was just after my stop was triggered it goes to the moon.
this is what really frustrates me about trading. I didn't lose, but look at all I didn't gain either. I think the banks do that on purpose to shake people like me out of the market. what is that called, a whipsaw or something?
Posted 14 March 2012 - 03:20 PM
I notice my downtrend line is a little sloppy... but that shouldn't make much difference.
I could have made like 100 dollars at the risk of only one.
I'll try again next week. One of these weeks I'll get it.
Posted 14 March 2012 - 03:41 PM
I missed it, now it's too late. It's still dropping like a stone it seems but I don't want to sell now.
I was noticing the second peak of an M shaped pattern and knew it was a sign it might go down... and it did.
I'm done until next week. It makes my stomach literally sick when I watch the candles go in the direction I predicted, but didn't get in.
Posted 14 March 2012 - 04:54 PM
anyway, here's just an interesting fact. I made $89 last year in capital gains.
When putting in the numbers through TaxAct Online, my refund actually went up after putting in that information.
That has me scratching my head. Of course I'm not complaining... but... WTF?
Posted 21 March 2012 - 03:53 PM
I'm more interested in copper but think gold is an important part of any retirement account. Mine has 5% in gold right now.
Not gonna make you rich in a hurry, that's for sure! And no bubble, worry about a bubble after gold is at $2000.
the copper chart looks ridiculous... what happened in 2006 to make it shoot up like that? It looks very volatile over the long term.
I'm short-selling the AUD/USD today.
Posted 21 March 2012 - 08:02 PM
It's fun though. As of today I bought:
Freeport Mcmoran Copper & Gold Inc 200 $39.97 $40.00 $0.85 $8,000.00 $6.00 0.08% Sell National Oilwell Varco Inc NOV National Oilwell Varco Inc 10 $80.52 $80.47 -$1.39 $804.70 -$0.50 -0.06% Sell iShares Shs Dow Jones US Hom... ITB iShares Shs Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund 150 $15.13 $15.11 $0.16 $2,266.50 -$3.00 -0.13% Sell Hovnanian Enterprises Inc HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc 2,000 $2.83 $2.83 $0.05 $5,650.00 -$10.00 -0.18% Sell Mag Silver Corp MVG Mag Silver Corp 100 $9.95 $9.87 -$0.11 $987.00 -$8.00 -0.80% Sell Platinum Group Metals Ltd PLG Platinum Group Metals Ltd 100 $1.57 $1.52 -$0.07 $152.00 -$5.00 -3.18%
The housing enterprise purchases are on the short term. As the media bumps talks of real estate improvements. I'm going to watch and see how this plays out. The oil was put on a stop and the metals are along for the ride.
Just testing out some theories and trying to learn a bit before I dump true capital into the markets.
Posted 22 March 2012 - 06:17 PM
I bought 350 this morning on both a good insider tip and some good ol' fashion research. I'm gonna kill it, brah! KILL IT!!!
Posted 23 March 2012 - 03:58 PM
NEW YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - U.S. gold and copper futures
rallied in early Friday dealings, spurred by the euro's bounce
back against the dollar as concerns about slowing Chinese and
euro zone growth abated somewhat.
* Gold rose, led by a rebound in the euro, but was still
set for a fourth consecutive weekly loss, due to patchy consumer
demand and evidence of the waning investor appetite for the
metal as confidence in the economic outlook strengthens.
* Spot gold was up around 0.3 percent at $1,649.76 an
ounce by 1105 GMT, having recovered from a low of $1,627.68 on
Thursday, but still on course a 0.6 percent decline on the week,
the fourth weekly loss in a row.
* COMEX April gold added $6.50 per ounce to $1,649.
* Copper rebounded from a two-week low hit the previous
session, helped by a weaker dollar and falling inventories, but
was still on track for a weekly loss as worries over demand
growth in top consumer China and elsewhere lingered.
* Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange
rose 1.3 percent to $8,403 a tonne by 0943 GMT from a close of
$8,290 on Thursday.
* COMEX May copper futures jumped 5.30 cents to
$3.8205 per lb.
* U.S. new home sales for February are due at 1000 a.m.
EDT/1400 GMT and are forecast to rise to a 325,000 rate from
* The euro recouped losses and global stocks were little
changed below this week's 8-month high while demand for German
government debt rose amid concerns about Chinese and euro zone
* Oil rebounded after Thursday's sell off as supply concerns
underpinned prices despite reassurances from the International
Energy Agency about Saudi supply.
Prices at 8:15 a.m. EDT (1214 GMT)
LAST NET PCT YTD
CHG CHG CHG
US gold 1646.70 4.00 0.3% 5.1%
US silver 31.535 0.190 0.6% 13.0%
US platinum 1617.60 5.50 0.3% 15.6%
US palladium 656.30 5.25 0.8% 0.0%
US copper 379.10 2.55 0.7% 10.3%
(Reporting by Carole Vaporean)
Posted 23 March 2012 - 05:08 PM
I'm hearing all kinds of everything across the board. In particuoar the commodities markets. It seems if production slow since they hold so many rare earths, that prices will soar.
What's you got?
Pretty decent rebound today on the market. I made a mistake no the construction.housing investmetns i made. They have both tanked miserably and are the two biggest portfolio set backs I made. Silver is up FCX is holding (Ibought more yesterday) and the oil is up.
Posted 25 March 2012 - 04:56 PM
this is only a 2 hour chart and covers like 5days
here's a chart for the last 5 years... looks like it's going up
if you drew a line connecting all the lows, you'd see that gold is testing support right now.
I'd set a stop at around 1550 and a limit around 1775 if I had the money to do it for fun.
Posted 26 March 2012 - 01:28 AM
It's a tricky time... it could go either way but the most I have to lose is about $4
On the other hand I could gain $10+
not so impressive but if I get good at steadily extracting pips from the market 4 and 10 could become 400 and 1000.
Posted 26 March 2012 - 08:14 PM
I managed to sell those real estate based shares I had for what I paid and bought some more gold froma good ETF. So far, I'm doing great. Friggin PSMT is soaring. that is gonna be the one I kill it on. Up 3.6% today. Putting me at over $1,000 profit so far.
Posted 26 March 2012 - 09:44 PM
It also triggered an entry order I had set up to go long if it broke resistance. I'm now up 4 pips on that one... not sure how I really feel about the whole trade, though, in general seeing how it went off when I wasn't paying atttention.
I'm gonna ride it out for a little while to see what happens.
Posted 27 March 2012 - 06:14 PM
Dang, mang. I am freakin good at this. My portfolio is up after only a week. I need to get some real capital and get in this game fo shnizzle.
Posted 30 March 2012 - 05:04 PM
I'm watching a few things, doing a lot of buying this week. It looks like the US will have a record crop-planting season so fertilizer companies are worth a look for Q2, but the commodities themselves should trade down.
Posted 04 April 2012 - 12:45 AM
obviously it's not the entire volume of all central banks, but it is a good guide. I'm assuming it's telling me only FXCMs volume... which is probably a good enough sample.
Anyway, been doing alright selling the pound. I would have done better if I didn't make a stupid mistake and enter a trade off a chart that I thought was a different timeframe then it really was. I didn't figure it out until I lost 30 pips.
Posted 05 April 2012 - 04:00 PM