334 replies to this topic

[PeaceFrog]

I wonder if quick scalping is the way to go.

It would have only been 2 bucks as opposed to hopefully 4 or 5 at least, but it was quick and easy.

any money extracted from the forex market is pretty cool in my opinion. If I could do it consistently and win I'd be thrilled.

I have sort of a conscience difficulty though... psychological thing and I believe if I could break through I'd be a sure winner.

I'm having a hard time justifying in my mind that this is really any sort of work. The understanding is coming with time, though. You're getting paid to take on a certain amount of risk for a certain amount of time. In doing so, you help stabilize the market. (I guess, that's what I've come to) Help me, Julius. Help me justify that this isn't just a lazy cheater's way out.

I don't really believe it is, though... it's difficult.

But really, all this studying and effort to actually do what besides try to line my own pocket?

I'm coming to an acceptance that this is not considered wrong at all in today's society and may in fact be considered a virtue.

I think I sabotage my trades after winning a certain amount.

[PeaceFrog]

I don't do much forex but can tell you the Yen is a safe-haven currency so when the world economy improves, the yen should depreciate versus most other currencies.

Kicking myself for a bunch of bad trades lately. But the only thing worse than being wrong is staying wrong.

well that trade went bad. I had my stop set at about only 10 pips... but yeah, better to lose only a little.

I definitely consider myself a complete amateur.

How did you learn Julius? Did you have formal training, or is this just what you ended up doing?

[PeaceFrog]

yes, I think I might just focus on the USD/jpy and buy after a valley and sell after a peak.

I think right now might be a good time to sell if you're into cashing in on retracements... they do move quick. It looks like a minor support was broken. I'm just going to wait, like I said... this time I'm not putting in an entry order... just going to watch it until it goes up again.

[PeaceFrog]

oh shit bro! Yeah this stop was definitely key... it's sinking like a rock now!

first read through I thought you turned 17 into 70, then on second read it was the other way around! sorry to hear that man... I haven't lost anything near that much yet

it's definitely like gambling... texas holdem or something... but more complicated.

[PeaceFrog]

mind if I ask what indicators you use or is that a secret?

I only really know enough to draw lines of support and resistance, and fibonacci tools.

I know a little bit about the indicators and the crossovers of the macd or stochastics... is any of that helpful to you? Actually, I do like using SARS (Parabolic something or other) as a guidline for where to put the stop.

[PeaceFrog]

watching this sink like the way it is right at this moment is so tempting... greed tempts me to sell. it would be so easy...

but other people who already sold are starting to feel fear... how long are they willing to risk taking their profit?

it's like a game of chicken. I imagine forex is like the autobahn of trading.

if I were doing full lots this would be thousands of dollars on the line... this microlot thing is fairly new.

[PeaceFrog]

My technical analysis guru is Peter Reznicek at http://www.shadowtrader.net

Check out his weekly 10-ish minute video each Sunday ("weekend update") for a thorough analysis of where the technicals say the market is going (of course, news trumps technicals every time)

In order of importance: trendline, moving averages, price support level. The rest of that MACD and stochastic shit will just confuse me although channels are pretty informative (a.k.a. Bollinger bands)

I'd suggest familiarizing yourself with the things he's good at: volume profile, value areas, points of control, etc.

thanks for the reference! I take any help I can get.

The thing about forex, though, is that volume doesn't apply... there's no way of telling.

Also, with forex, there aren't any gaps because it's so liquid... there's slight differences when reading the candle charts.

I got into forex because it was easy and convenient... something to do instead of being bored.

funny story... my wife made $100 in one day starting with like only $20. She was playing very risky. I think after a period of about a week she had $1000... I thought she had some sort of gift... but then in one day she lost it ALL! I was telling her to cash out but she didn't.

Now, she's not allowed to play forex.

[PeaceFrog]

that's exactly what I've read... thanks for the confirmation

[Julius]

If you stick to the technicals, use stops, and never be afraid to take a small gain, you'll never make the mistakes I did.

[PeaceFrog]

I'm conservative when it comes to this stuff. I don't have the money to be able to lose... in fact I have lost money in the past that I couldn't afford to lose and learned... I just use spare money for fun.

I just hope that in the future I might have a good chunk of change and when that time comes I'll know what to do with it.

[PeaceFrog]

take a look at what happened to the USD/JPY...

figures that it was just after my stop was triggered it goes to the moon.

this is what really frustrates me about trading. I didn't lose, but look at all I didn't gain either. I think the banks do that on purpose to shake people like me out of the market. what is that called, a whipsaw or something?

[PeaceFrog]

check out my chart... I didn't change my lines or anything.

I think I know what I did wrong, I shouldn't have bought while it was still under the downtrending line.

[PeaceFrog]

it's depressing how close you can come to doing really well but missing.

I notice my downtrend line is a little sloppy... but that shouldn't make much difference.

I could have made like 100 dollars at the risk of only one.

I'll try again next week. One of these weeks I'll get it.

[PeaceFrog]

I was also keeping my eye on the AUD/USD looking to sell...

I missed it, now it's too late. It's still dropping like a stone it seems but I don't want to sell now.

I was noticing the second peak of an M shaped pattern and knew it was a sign it might go down... and it did.

I'm done until next week. It makes my stomach literally sick when I watch the candles go in the direction I predicted, but didn't get in.

[PeaceFrog]

I know I'm flooding the thread, but this stuff really interests me and it doesn't involve any conflict...

anyway, here's just an interesting fact. I made $89 last year in capital gains.

When putting in the numbers through TaxAct Online, my refund actually went up after putting in that information.

That has me scratching my head. Of course I'm not complaining... but... WTF?

[TakeAStepBack]

Julius, I highly recommend the book currency wars by James Rickards. It's pretty darned good and I believe you would like it. I'm currently only a quarter of the way through and can't put it down.

Highly recommended.

[PeaceFrog]

I'm more interested in copper but think gold is an important part of any retirement account. Mine has 5% in gold right now.

Not gonna make you rich in a hurry, that's for sure! And no bubble, worry about a bubble after gold is at $2000.

the copper chart looks ridiculous... what happened in 2006 to make it shoot up like that? It looks very volatile over the long term.

I'm short-selling the AUD/USD today.

[TakeAStepBack]

Sio, I'm getting my hands wet in the markets. I found a fun way to test the waters and get some knowledge on how to work the market. I'm looking at both long term and short term trading. Using Wall Street Survivor virtual market.

It's fun though. As of today I bought:

Freeport Mcmoran Copper & Gold Inc 200 $39.97 $40.00 $0.85 $8,000.00 $6.00 0.08% Sell National Oilwell Varco Inc NOV National Oilwell Varco Inc 10 $80.52 $80.47 -$1.39 $804.70 -$0.50 -0.06% Sell iShares Shs Dow Jones US Hom... ITB iShares Shs Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund 150 $15.13 $15.11 $0.16 $2,266.50 -$3.00 -0.13% Sell Hovnanian Enterprises Inc HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc 2,000 $2.83 $2.83 $0.05 $5,650.00 -$10.00 -0.18% Sell Mag Silver Corp MVG Mag Silver Corp 100 $9.95 $9.87 -$0.11 $987.00 -$8.00 -0.80% Sell Platinum Group Metals Ltd PLG Platinum Group Metals Ltd 100 $1.57 $1.52 -$0.07 $152.00 -$5.00 -3.18%


The housing enterprise purchases are on the short term. As the media bumps talks of real estate improvements. I'm going to watch and see how this plays out. The oil was put on a stop and the metals are along for the ride.

Just testing out some theories and trying to learn a bit before I dump true capital into the markets.

[Julius]

bought some more FCX today myself. . . it's a stock picker's market out there. Also bought some GE, C, and DVN.

[Julius]

GE is my new largest position.

[TakeAStepBack]

Interesting......'m starting to get a feel for how this works...kinda....

[Julius]

I work on the principle of following "the smart money" and today I saw a large institutional player make a big bet in the options market that GE will be over $22 by mid-may. So I copied them. That simple.

[TakeAStepBack]

"Follow the money?"

[TakeAStepBack]

Cool avatar too, J.

[PeaceFrog]

the "smart money" knows what will happen before it happens. They are the market makers. Most people can only follow and pick up on the scraps they leave behind.

[PeaceFrog]

virtual trading is a great way to learn, but even if you try to pretend the money is real, you can't really trick yourself into believing it that well. When the money is real, you tend to be less aggressive and take less risk.

[PeaceFrog]

I've been waiting all day for this... and was down 40 pips. In the matter of 1 minute I regained those losses and am now on the winning side.

[TakeAStepBack]

FCX took the nose dive, but it looks like the climb is on.

[TakeAStepBack]

Housing prices are "expected" to bottom out, so the only place to go is up. Looks like a slower rise than my first anticipation.

[TakeAStepBack]

I'm going to buy more FCX before day end as it bottoms out. It should rebound nicely and then I'll sell what i bought low at the crest.

[TakeAStepBack]

A lot of helpful tips, good reads and resource over at the Motley Fool.

[PeaceFrog]

I kept my forex position open overnight, and I'm glad I did.

I'm up a total of 60+ pips.

I think it will go down a little more before it hits a major support (it might break through but I plan to close the position before that)

[TakeAStepBack]

Julius, check out PSMT PriceSmart Inc. I bought a bunch and these guys are setting it up to be the walmart of south america, brah. Get in now while the shares are reasonable.

I bought 350 this morning on both a good insider tip and some good ol' fashion research. I'm gonna kill it, brah! KILL IT!!!

[PeaceFrog]

looks like it might be time to go short on the USD/JPY.

Why is the dollar going down?

[TakeAStepBack]

http://www.reuters.c...E8EN1KA20120323



NEW YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - U.S. gold and copper futures
rallied in early Friday dealings, spurred by the euro's bounce
back against the dollar as concerns about slowing Chinese and
euro zone growth abated somewhat.

FUNDAMENTALS
* Gold rose, led by a rebound in the euro, but was still
set for a fourth consecutive weekly loss, due to patchy consumer
demand and evidence of the waning investor appetite for the
metal as confidence in the economic outlook strengthens.
* Spot gold was up around 0.3 percent at $1,649.76 an
ounce by 1105 GMT, having recovered from a low of $1,627.68 on
Thursday, but still on course a 0.6 percent decline on the week,
the fourth weekly loss in a row.
* COMEX April gold added $6.50 per ounce to $1,649.
* Copper rebounded from a two-week low hit the previous
session, helped by a weaker dollar and falling inventories, but
was still on track for a weekly loss as worries over demand
growth in top consumer China and elsewhere lingered.

* Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange
rose 1.3 percent to $8,403 a tonne by 0943 GMT from a close of
$8,290 on Thursday.
* COMEX May copper futures jumped 5.30 cents to
$3.8205 per lb.

ECONOMY
* U.S. new home sales for February are due at 1000 a.m.
EDT/1400 GMT and are forecast to rise to a 325,000 rate from
321,000 previously.

MARKETS
* The euro recouped losses and global stocks were little
changed below this week's 8-month high while demand for German
government debt rose amid concerns about Chinese and euro zone
growth.
* Oil rebounded after Thursday's sell off as supply concerns
underpinned prices despite reassurances from the International
Energy Agency about Saudi supply.

Prices at 8:15 a.m. EDT (1214 GMT)

LAST NET PCT YTD
CHG CHG CHG
US gold 1646.70 4.00 0.3% 5.1%
US silver 31.535 0.190 0.6% 13.0%
US platinum 1617.60 5.50 0.3% 15.6%
US palladium 656.30 5.25 0.8% 0.0%
US copper 379.10 2.55 0.7% 10.3%


(Reporting by Carole Vaporean)

[TakeAStepBack]

Julius, thoughts on Chinas produciton slow 5 months running?
I'm hearing all kinds of everything across the board. In particuoar the commodities markets. It seems if production slow since they hold so many rare earths, that prices will soar.

What's you got?

Pretty decent rebound today on the market. I made a mistake no the construction.housing investmetns i made. They have both tanked miserably and are the two biggest portfolio set backs I made. Silver is up FCX is holding (Ibought more yesterday) and the oil is up.

[PeaceFrog]

looks like this week might be a good time to buy gold. Just make sure you use a stop around 1620 something.



this is only a 2 hour chart and covers like 5days

here's a chart for the last 5 years... looks like it's going up



if you drew a line connecting all the lows, you'd see that gold is testing support right now.

I'd set a stop at around 1550 and a limit around 1775 if I had the money to do it for fun.

[PeaceFrog]

I'm selling the AUD/USD again this week.

It's a tricky time... it could go either way but the most I have to lose is about $4

On the other hand I could gain $10+

not so impressive but if I get good at steadily extracting pips from the market 4 and 10 could become 400 and 1000.

[Julius]

I got nothing. Just going to have to wait and watch for a while.

[TakeAStepBack]

Excellent market rebound today after bernanke put QE3 (in passing) back on the table. Everything went up and silveer rebounded around 4%.

I managed to sell those real estate based shares I had for what I paid and bought some more gold froma good ETF. So far, I'm doing great. Friggin PSMT is soaring. that is gonna be the one I kill it on. Up 3.6% today. Putting me at over $1,000 profit so far.

[PeaceFrog]

the AUD/USD shot up in the middle of the night triggering my stop at only 12 pips profit. That's still better than a loss.

It also triggered an entry order I had set up to go long if it broke resistance. I'm now up 4 pips on that one... not sure how I really feel about the whole trade, though, in general seeing how it went off when I wasn't paying atttention.

I'm gonna ride it out for a little while to see what happens.

[PeaceFrog]

got stopped out of that, and decided I'm out because I have no idea what's going on.

I'm going long on the USD/JPY instead.

[TakeAStepBack]

I killed it on MolyCorp. (MCP) this morning. the Chinese based rare earths company showed strong earnings and shot like a rocket. I bought in at 9:48 AM adn the price was $29.-- per share. Right now, it's at $32.35 per share and moving. I'm dropping them before the market closes today for a sweet profit.

Dang, mang. I am freakin good at this. My portfolio is up after only a week. I need to get some real capital and get in this game fo shnizzle.

[Julius]

Nice job on MCP! I rode that train from 24-29 and then got the fuck out. But long term, say 3-5 years, that puppy could be at $80.

I'm watching a few things, doing a lot of buying this week. It looks like the US will have a record crop-planting season so fertilizer companies are worth a look for Q2, but the commodities themselves should trade down.

[Julius]

Want something risky, exciting, controversial, with potential to double this year? I bought my first lot of HEK today, a company that manages waste from fracking water and sells bottled water in China.

[Julius]

GE, long and strong around $20. 3.4% yield, laggard so far, going up.

[PeaceFrog]

I discovered that if I use the flash web version of FXCMs trading platform, it has an option to show volume...

obviously it's not the entire volume of all central banks, but it is a good guide. I'm assuming it's telling me only FXCMs volume... which is probably a good enough sample.

Anyway, been doing alright selling the pound. I would have done better if I didn't make a stupid mistake and enter a trade off a chart that I thought was a different timeframe then it really was. I didn't figure it out until I lost 30 pips.

[TakeAStepBack]

Julius, are you following the BRICS cross exchange? I'm reading mixed messages after a slow start from last Fridays kick-off. I have a feeling the 2003 Goldman Sachs report calling this rising alliance the new power is actually behinning to play out. Couple this with rising tensions in west asian water belts with massive naval drills ready to kick off in a few short weeks between US/allies and the growing China/Russia alliance and we are really heating up another serious currency war. Imagine if strong saving western nations defected to the BRICS new call for trade alliance and even...gasp...a gold standard re-dux. Interesting times indeed.

[Smiles]

Want something risky, exciting, controversial, with potential to double this year? I bought my first lot of HEK today, a company that manages waste from fracking water and sells bottled water in China.

Those poor Chinese.

[Julius]

I can only follow so much at once. . . no need to trade everything when you can just trade one or two things well.

I'm short a lot of stuff. . . but the only one I think it's safe to be short if you also have to work a full time job is GRPN.