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Julius- Thoughts on precious metals FFTA


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#101 PeaceFrog

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 05:07 AM

I wonder if quick scalping is the way to go.

It would have only been 2 bucks as opposed to hopefully 4 or 5 at least, but it was quick and easy.

any money extracted from the forex market is pretty cool in my opinion. If I could do it consistently and win I'd be thrilled.

I have sort of a conscience difficulty though... psychological thing and I believe if I could break through I'd be a sure winner.

I'm having a hard time justifying in my mind that this is really any sort of work. The understanding is coming with time, though. You're getting paid to take on a certain amount of risk for a certain amount of time. In doing so, you help stabilize the market. (I guess, that's what I've come to) Help me, Julius. Help me justify that this isn't just a lazy cheater's way out.

I don't really believe it is, though... it's difficult.

But really, all this studying and effort to actually do what besides try to line my own pocket?

I'm coming to an acceptance that this is not considered wrong at all in today's society and may in fact be considered a virtue.

I think I sabotage my trades after winning a certain amount.

#102 PeaceFrog

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 05:08 AM

I don't do much forex but can tell you the Yen is a safe-haven currency so when the world economy improves, the yen should depreciate versus most other currencies.

Kicking myself for a bunch of bad trades lately. But the only thing worse than being wrong is staying wrong.


well that trade went bad. I had my stop set at about only 10 pips... but yeah, better to lose only a little.

I definitely consider myself a complete amateur.

How did you learn Julius? Did you have formal training, or is this just what you ended up doing?

#103 PeaceFrog

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 05:12 AM

yes, I think I might just focus on the USD/jpy and buy after a valley and sell after a peak.

I think right now might be a good time to sell if you're into cashing in on retracements... they do move quick. It looks like a minor support was broken. I'm just going to wait, like I said... this time I'm not putting in an entry order... just going to watch it until it goes up again.

#104 PeaceFrog

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 05:26 AM

oh shit bro! Yeah this stop was definitely key... it's sinking like a rock now!

first read through I thought you turned 17 into 70, then on second read it was the other way around! :( sorry to hear that man... I haven't lost anything near that much yet :)

it's definitely like gambling... texas holdem or something... but more complicated.

#105 PeaceFrog

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 05:31 AM

mind if I ask what indicators you use or is that a secret? :)

I only really know enough to draw lines of support and resistance, and fibonacci tools.

I know a little bit about the indicators and the crossovers of the macd or stochastics... is any of that helpful to you? Actually, I do like using SARS (Parabolic something or other) as a guidline for where to put the stop.

#106 PeaceFrog

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 05:40 AM

watching this sink like the way it is right at this moment is so tempting... greed tempts me to sell. it would be so easy...

but other people who already sold are starting to feel fear... how long are they willing to risk taking their profit?

it's like a game of chicken. I imagine forex is like the autobahn of trading.

if I were doing full lots this would be thousands of dollars on the line... this microlot thing is fairly new.

#107 PeaceFrog

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 05:43 AM

My technical analysis guru is Peter Reznicek at http://www.shadowtrader.net

Check out his weekly 10-ish minute video each Sunday ("weekend update") for a thorough analysis of where the technicals say the market is going (of course, news trumps technicals every time)

In order of importance: trendline, moving averages, price support level. The rest of that MACD and stochastic shit will just confuse me although channels are pretty informative (a.k.a. Bollinger bands)

I'd suggest familiarizing yourself with the things he's good at: volume profile, value areas, points of control, etc.


thanks for the reference! I take any help I can get.

The thing about forex, though, is that volume doesn't apply... there's no way of telling.

Also, with forex, there aren't any gaps because it's so liquid... there's slight differences when reading the candle charts.

I got into forex because it was easy and convenient... something to do instead of being bored.

funny story... my wife made $100 in one day starting with like only $20. She was playing very risky. I think after a period of about a week she had $1000... I thought she had some sort of gift... but then in one day she lost it ALL! I was telling her to cash out but she didn't.

Now, she's not allowed to play forex.

#108 PeaceFrog

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 05:45 AM

that's exactly what I've read... thanks for the confirmation

#109 Julius

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 05:52 AM

If you stick to the technicals, use stops, and never be afraid to take a small gain, you'll never make the mistakes I did.

#110 PeaceFrog

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 06:09 AM

I'm conservative when it comes to this stuff. I don't have the money to be able to lose... in fact I have lost money in the past that I couldn't afford to lose and learned... I just use spare money for fun.

I just hope that in the future I might have a good chunk of change and when that time comes I'll know what to do with it.

#111 PeaceFrog

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 03:00 PM

take a look at what happened to the USD/JPY...

figures that it was just after my stop was triggered it goes to the moon.

this is what really frustrates me about trading. I didn't lose, but look at all I didn't gain either. I think the banks do that on purpose to shake people like me out of the market. what is that called, a whipsaw or something?

#112 PeaceFrog

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 03:11 PM

Posted Image

check out my chart... I didn't change my lines or anything.

I think I know what I did wrong, I shouldn't have bought while it was still under the downtrending line.

#113 PeaceFrog

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 03:20 PM

it's depressing how close you can come to doing really well but missing.

I notice my downtrend line is a little sloppy... but that shouldn't make much difference.

I could have made like 100 dollars at the risk of only one. :fp:

I'll try again next week. One of these weeks I'll get it.

#114 PeaceFrog

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 03:41 PM

I was also keeping my eye on the AUD/USD looking to sell...

I missed it, now it's too late. It's still dropping like a stone it seems but I don't want to sell now.

I was noticing the second peak of an M shaped pattern and knew it was a sign it might go down... and it did.

I'm done until next week. It makes my stomach literally sick when I watch the candles go in the direction I predicted, but didn't get in.

#115 PeaceFrog

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 04:54 PM

I know I'm flooding the thread, but this stuff really interests me and it doesn't involve any conflict...

anyway, here's just an interesting fact. I made $89 last year in capital gains.

When putting in the numbers through TaxAct Online, my refund actually went up after putting in that information.

That has me scratching my head. Of course I'm not complaining... but... WTF?

#116 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 21 March 2012 - 01:18 PM

Julius, I highly recommend the book currency wars by James Rickards. It's pretty darned good and I believe you would like it. I'm currently only a quarter of the way through and can't put it down.

Highly recommended.

#117 PeaceFrog

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Posted 21 March 2012 - 03:53 PM

I'm more interested in copper but think gold is an important part of any retirement account. Mine has 5% in gold right now.

Not gonna make you rich in a hurry, that's for sure! And no bubble, worry about a bubble after gold is at $2000.


the copper chart looks ridiculous... what happened in 2006 to make it shoot up like that? It looks very volatile over the long term.

I'm short-selling the AUD/USD today.

#118 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 21 March 2012 - 08:02 PM

Sio, I'm getting my hands wet in the markets. I found a fun way to test the waters and get some knowledge on how to work the market. I'm looking at both long term and short term trading. Using Wall Street Survivor virtual market. :rolling:

It's fun though. As of today I bought:

Freeport Mcmoran Copper & Gold Inc 200 $39.97 $40.00 $0.85 $8,000.00 $6.00 0.08% Posted Image Sell National Oilwell Varco Inc NOV National Oilwell Varco Inc 10 $80.52 $80.47 -$1.39 $804.70 -$0.50 -0.06% Posted Image Sell iShares Shs Dow Jones US Hom... ITB iShares Shs Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund 150 $15.13 $15.11 $0.16 $2,266.50 -$3.00 -0.13% Posted Image Sell Hovnanian Enterprises Inc HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc 2,000 $2.83 $2.83 $0.05 $5,650.00 -$10.00 -0.18% Posted Image Sell Mag Silver Corp MVG Mag Silver Corp 100 $9.95 $9.87 -$0.11 $987.00 -$8.00 -0.80% Posted Image Sell Platinum Group Metals Ltd PLG Platinum Group Metals Ltd 100 $1.57 $1.52 -$0.07 $152.00 -$5.00 -3.18%


The housing enterprise purchases are on the short term. As the media bumps talks of real estate improvements. I'm going to watch and see how this plays out. The oil was put on a stop and the metals are along for the ride.

Just testing out some theories and trying to learn a bit before I dump true capital into the markets.

#119 Julius

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Posted 21 March 2012 - 08:18 PM

bought some more FCX today myself. . . it's a stock picker's market out there. Also bought some GE, C, and DVN.

#120 Julius

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Posted 21 March 2012 - 08:20 PM

GE is my new largest position.

#121 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 21 March 2012 - 08:23 PM

Interesting......'m starting to get a feel for how this works...kinda....:rolling:

#122 Julius

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Posted 21 March 2012 - 08:29 PM

I work on the principle of following "the smart money" and today I saw a large institutional player make a big bet in the options market that GE will be over $22 by mid-may. So I copied them. That simple.

#123 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 21 March 2012 - 09:34 PM

"Follow the money?"

#124 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 21 March 2012 - 10:09 PM

Cool avatar too, J.

#125 PeaceFrog

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Posted 21 March 2012 - 10:22 PM

the "smart money" knows what will happen before it happens. They are the market makers. Most people can only follow and pick up on the scraps they leave behind.

#126 PeaceFrog

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Posted 21 March 2012 - 10:27 PM

virtual trading is a great way to learn, but even if you try to pretend the money is real, you can't really trick yourself into believing it that well. When the money is real, you tend to be less aggressive and take less risk.

#127 PeaceFrog

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Posted 22 March 2012 - 02:35 AM

I've been waiting all day for this... and was down 40 pips. In the matter of 1 minute I regained those losses and am now on the winning side.

#128 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 22 March 2012 - 02:25 PM

FCX took the nose dive, but it looks like the climb is on.

#129 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 22 March 2012 - 02:27 PM

Housing prices are "expected" to bottom out, so the only place to go is up. Looks like a slower rise than my first anticipation.

#130 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 22 March 2012 - 03:08 PM

I'm going to buy more FCX before day end as it bottoms out. It should rebound nicely and then I'll sell what i bought low at the crest.

#131 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 22 March 2012 - 03:27 PM

A lot of helpful tips, good reads and resource over at the Motley Fool. :jimy:

#132 PeaceFrog

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Posted 22 March 2012 - 03:51 PM

I kept my forex position open overnight, and I'm glad I did.

I'm up a total of 60+ pips.

I think it will go down a little more before it hits a major support (it might break through but I plan to close the position before that)

#133 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 22 March 2012 - 06:17 PM

Julius, check out PSMT PriceSmart Inc. I bought a bunch and these guys are setting it up to be the walmart of south america, brah. Get in now while the shares are reasonable.

I bought 350 this morning on both a good insider tip and some good ol' fashion research. I'm gonna kill it, brah! KILL IT!!! :crazy:

#134 PeaceFrog

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Posted 22 March 2012 - 07:31 PM

looks like it might be time to go short on the USD/JPY.

Why is the dollar going down?

#135 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 03:58 PM

http://www.reuters.c...E8EN1KA20120323



NEW YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - U.S. gold and copper futures
rallied in early Friday dealings, spurred by the euro's bounce
back against the dollar as concerns about slowing Chinese and
euro zone growth abated somewhat.

FUNDAMENTALS
* Gold rose, led by a rebound in the euro, but was still
set for a fourth consecutive weekly loss, due to patchy consumer
demand and evidence of the waning investor appetite for the
metal as confidence in the economic outlook strengthens.
* Spot gold was up around 0.3 percent at $1,649.76 an
ounce by 1105 GMT, having recovered from a low of $1,627.68 on
Thursday, but still on course a 0.6 percent decline on the week,
the fourth weekly loss in a row.
* COMEX April gold added $6.50 per ounce to $1,649.
* Copper rebounded from a two-week low hit the previous
session, helped by a weaker dollar and falling inventories, but
was still on track for a weekly loss as worries over demand
growth in top consumer China and elsewhere lingered.

* Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange
rose 1.3 percent to $8,403 a tonne by 0943 GMT from a close of
$8,290 on Thursday.
* COMEX May copper futures jumped 5.30 cents to
$3.8205 per lb.

ECONOMY
* U.S. new home sales for February are due at 1000 a.m.
EDT/1400 GMT and are forecast to rise to a 325,000 rate from
321,000 previously.

MARKETS
* The euro recouped losses and global stocks were little
changed below this week's 8-month high while demand for German
government debt rose amid concerns about Chinese and euro zone
growth.
* Oil rebounded after Thursday's sell off as supply concerns
underpinned prices despite reassurances from the International
Energy Agency about Saudi supply.

Prices at 8:15 a.m. EDT (1214 GMT)

LAST NET PCT YTD
CHG CHG CHG
US gold 1646.70 4.00 0.3% 5.1%
US silver 31.535 0.190 0.6% 13.0%
US platinum 1617.60 5.50 0.3% 15.6%
US palladium 656.30 5.25 0.8% 0.0%
US copper 379.10 2.55 0.7% 10.3%


(Reporting by Carole Vaporean)

#136 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 05:08 PM

Julius, thoughts on Chinas produciton slow 5 months running?
I'm hearing all kinds of everything across the board. In particuoar the commodities markets. It seems if production slow since they hold so many rare earths, that prices will soar.

What's you got?

Pretty decent rebound today on the market. I made a mistake no the construction.housing investmetns i made. They have both tanked miserably and are the two biggest portfolio set backs I made. Silver is up FCX is holding (Ibought more yesterday) and the oil is up.

#137 PeaceFrog

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Posted 25 March 2012 - 04:56 PM

looks like this week might be a good time to buy gold. Just make sure you use a stop around 1620 something.

Posted Image

this is only a 2 hour chart and covers like 5days

here's a chart for the last 5 years... looks like it's going up

Posted Image

if you drew a line connecting all the lows, you'd see that gold is testing support right now.

I'd set a stop at around 1550 and a limit around 1775 if I had the money to do it for fun.

#138 PeaceFrog

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Posted 26 March 2012 - 01:28 AM

I'm selling the AUD/USD again this week.

It's a tricky time... it could go either way but the most I have to lose is about $4

On the other hand I could gain $10+

not so impressive but if I get good at steadily extracting pips from the market 4 and 10 could become 400 and 1000.

#139 Julius

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Posted 26 March 2012 - 03:26 AM

I got nothing. Just going to have to wait and watch for a while.

#140 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 26 March 2012 - 08:14 PM

Excellent market rebound today after bernanke put QE3 (in passing) back on the table. Everything went up and silveer rebounded around 4%.

I managed to sell those real estate based shares I had for what I paid and bought some more gold froma good ETF. So far, I'm doing great. Friggin PSMT is soaring. that is gonna be the one I kill it on. Up 3.6% today. Putting me at over $1,000 profit so far.

#141 PeaceFrog

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Posted 26 March 2012 - 09:44 PM

the AUD/USD shot up in the middle of the night triggering my stop at only 12 pips profit. That's still better than a loss.

It also triggered an entry order I had set up to go long if it broke resistance. I'm now up 4 pips on that one... not sure how I really feel about the whole trade, though, in general seeing how it went off when I wasn't paying atttention.

I'm gonna ride it out for a little while to see what happens.

#142 PeaceFrog

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Posted 26 March 2012 - 11:14 PM

got stopped out of that, and decided I'm out because I have no idea what's going on.

I'm going long on the USD/JPY instead.

#143 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 27 March 2012 - 06:14 PM

I killed it on MolyCorp. (MCP) this morning. the Chinese based rare earths company showed strong earnings and shot like a rocket. I bought in at 9:48 AM adn the price was $29.-- per share. Right now, it's at $32.35 per share and moving. I'm dropping them before the market closes today for a sweet profit.

Dang, mang. I am freakin good at this. My portfolio is up after only a week. I need to get some real capital and get in this game fo shnizzle.

#144 Julius

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Posted 30 March 2012 - 05:04 PM

Nice job on MCP! I rode that train from 24-29 and then got the fuck out. But long term, say 3-5 years, that puppy could be at $80.

I'm watching a few things, doing a lot of buying this week. It looks like the US will have a record crop-planting season so fertilizer companies are worth a look for Q2, but the commodities themselves should trade down.

#145 Julius

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Posted 02 April 2012 - 05:10 PM

Want something risky, exciting, controversial, with potential to double this year? I bought my first lot of HEK today, a company that manages waste from fracking water and sells bottled water in China.

#146 Julius

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Posted 03 April 2012 - 08:03 AM

GE, long and strong around $20. 3.4% yield, laggard so far, going up.

#147 PeaceFrog

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Posted 04 April 2012 - 12:45 AM

I discovered that if I use the flash web version of FXCMs trading platform, it has an option to show volume...

obviously it's not the entire volume of all central banks, but it is a good guide. I'm assuming it's telling me only FXCMs volume... which is probably a good enough sample.

Anyway, been doing alright selling the pound. I would have done better if I didn't make a stupid mistake and enter a trade off a chart that I thought was a different timeframe then it really was. I didn't figure it out until I lost 30 pips.

#148 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 05 April 2012 - 04:00 PM

Julius, are you following the BRICS cross exchange? I'm reading mixed messages after a slow start from last Fridays kick-off. I have a feeling the 2003 Goldman Sachs report calling this rising alliance the new power is actually behinning to play out. Couple this with rising tensions in west asian water belts with massive naval drills ready to kick off in a few short weeks between US/allies and the growing China/Russia alliance and we are really heating up another serious currency war. Imagine if strong saving western nations defected to the BRICS new call for trade alliance and even...gasp...a gold standard re-dux. Interesting times indeed.

#149 Smiles

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 08:36 PM

Want something risky, exciting, controversial, with potential to double this year? I bought my first lot of HEK today, a company that manages waste from fracking water and sells bottled water in China.


:lol: Those poor Chinese.

#150 Julius

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 11:33 PM

I can only follow so much at once. . . no need to trade everything when you can just trade one or two things well.

I'm short a lot of stuff. . . but the only one I think it's safe to be short if you also have to work a full time job is GRPN.