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Nobody is asking the right question about Syria


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#1 Julius

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 01:59 PM

What outcome are we trying to achieve?

 

2/3 of the rebel groups are hard line Sunni or straight-up Al Qaeda linked. Do we want to strengthen them further? 

 

OK, now feel free to go back to your simplistic "War or no war" analysis.  :grin:



#2 concert andy

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 02:02 PM

No war!  rabble rable rabble!!!



#3 In A Silent Way

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 02:06 PM

I'm all for war as long as it doesn't use our citizens and our money.



#4 Tim the Beek

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 02:12 PM

What outcome are we trying to achieve?

 

2/3 of the rebel groups are hard line Sunni or straight-up Al Qaeda linked. Do we want to strengthen them further? 

 

OK, now feel free to go back to your simplistic "War or no war" analysis.  :grin:


This is part of what's absurd about all of this...they're (I refuse to use we in this case) not really trying to achieve an outcome.

They're talking about going to war, but with the specific intent of not defeating the "enemy."

They're going to war get rid of some, but not all of his WMDs.

They'll undoubtedly be killing some innocents in order to send a pointless "message."

It's just stupid. In my opinion.

But what do I know? I don't have a Nobel Peace Prize on my mantel.

 



#5 u.s.blues

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 02:29 PM



But what do I know? I don't have a Nobel Peace Prize on my mantel.

 

 

not yet tim, not yet...



#6 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 02:30 PM

What outcome are we trying to achieve?

 

That's an extremely complex question, As im sure you know. it's the question I'm trying to find some sort of answer to myself. Clearly we know that the US involvement in Syria is not about the use of chemical weapons. Clearly. What this is about is geo-politics. Very complicated politics at that.

 

On the one hand, we have Israel. Who was the one who gave us these "classified" leaks over Assad's supposed use of chem weapons. They also have a common enemey here - Iran. Syria being a proxy as such, leaves them open to meddling and ultimately goal oriented in Isreal's foreign policy (protect itself).

 

On the other hand, we have two players that are at odds within the ME. Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Qatar is probably the most influencial player in the current ME unrest. We know the US has its dominant military base, Al Udeid, in Qatar. Which is what keeps Saudi Arabia from annexing qatar. We also have Qatar with the most influencial media establishment in the Arab world, Al Jazeera.

 

We know that Qatar is spending billions in funding the anti-Assad "rebels" in Syria. Qatar's leader, Emir Hamad, has big visions of Qatar being a driving force int eh Arab world. Which is partly where Syria comes in. Syria is a proxy state of Iran, who has close ties with both China and Russia. We know about the pipeline Qatar sought from Assad a few years back, which was rejected. Saudi Arabia is also pushing to remove Assad and install its own regime so that it may influence energy commerce in the region. Qatar also wants to remove Assad for religious reasons (Arab politics is almost ALWAYS centered on religious sect). This is where the story gets interesting.

 

What role, is the US to play in this? We have common enemies all around here - Iran. That is Qatar (although enjoys its working relationship with Iran over the largest natural gas field on planet earth), Saudi Arabia (Iran is not Arab dominate), Israel and the US.

 

the part that gets really complicated is in which pocket the US is most interested in infuencing. We know that the dominant rebel factions are Al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood. So I dont think the US, or even Isreal would liek to see Assad toppled only to have a Libyan repeat.

 

I'd be interested in hearing what you thin, J. This is a very complex situation geo-politically and it all hinge pins on energy and Arab dominance...I just cant understand from which angle the US wants to see this turn out. Because the way i see it, we'll, at best, get contracts for energy, infrastructure and some regional dominance. Ther eis also killing Russia's nat gas dominance in Europe.....

 

it's really sticky, thats for sure.



#7 concert andy

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 02:54 PM

On the other hand, we have two players that are at odds within the ME. Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Qatar is probably the most influencial player in the current ME unrest. We know the US has its dominant military base, Al Udeid, in Qatar. Which is what keeps Saudi Arabia from annexing qatar. We also have Qatar with the most influencial media establishment in the Arab world, Al Jazeera.

 

 

Also, Qatar money, which bought the World Cup being played there in 2020.

 

On the one hand, we have Israel. Who was the one who gave us these "classified" leaks over Assad's supposed use of chem weapons. They also have a common enemey here - Iran. Syria being a proxy as such, leaves them open to meddling and ultimately goal oriented in Isreal's foreign policy (protect itself).

 

 

Without going crazy, could someone describe why Iran and much of the Middle East are "enemies"?  Is it simply control of oil and the riches oil creates?

 

 

 

Now on to the meat of this discussion:

 

The US Stated Military Objective:

 

“Our military objectives in Syria would be to hold the Assad regime accountable, degrade its ability to carry out these kinds of attacks and deter it from further use of chemical weapons,”

 

How do we do this?  Do we know where these weapons are?

 

And how do we hold Assad accountable?  I think this is about removing Assad, and no plan for after that, see Iraq.



#8 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 02:59 PM

Without going crazy, could someone describe why Iran and much of the Middle East are "enemies"?  Is it simply control of oil and the riches oil creates?

 

Religious sect dominance.



#9 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 03:00 PM

How do we do this?  Do we know where these weapons are?

 

And how do we hold Assad accountable?  I think this is about removing Assad, and no plan for after that, see Iraq.

 

We don't. That's not the goal. That's what the WH is selling its involvement over, but that isn't what we're involved over. Perhaps partially, but the picture is much, much larger than that.
 



#10 Tim the Beek

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 03:07 PM

Without going crazy, could someone describe why Iran and much of the Middle East are "enemies"?

 

Religious (Iran is Shiite) and ethnic (despite what many assume, Iran is Persian, and not Arab) tensions is my guess.



#11 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 03:11 PM

Religious (Iran is Shiite) and ethnic (despite what many assume, Iran is Persian, and not Arab) tensions is my guess.

 

Thanks for saying that far more clearly than I managed. 



#12 concert andy

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 03:47 PM

We don't. That's not the goal. That's what the WH is selling its involvement over, but that isn't what we're involved over. Perhaps partially, but the picture is much, much larger than that.
 

 

 

Very true, but I still find their stated objective redicolous.  



#13 Tim the Beek

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 04:16 PM

Thanks for saying that far more clearly than I managed. 


You wasn't unclear...mine's just fleshier. :)

But yer welcome.



#14 TEO

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 04:42 PM

To turn the focus from domestic issues of course.



#15 hippieskichick

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 04:56 PM

Here's a question I have... (because I don't watch TV and I don't read much on world news...) why did they chemically attack in the first place?



#16 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 05:15 PM

Here's a question I have... (because I don't watch TV and I don't read much on world news...) why did they chemically attack in the first place?

 

Who?

 

As it stands now, there is no coraborated evidence in any direction. We know the rebels had sarin gas in Turkey (they were caught with it). We have reports that say they used it (though on accident and that it was provided by Saudi Arabia). We have so far, classified hearsay provided by Israeli intelligence claiming it was Assad (you cant see that. it's above your pay grade). But we have no evidence at all who used it, and whether or not it was military grade sarin.

 

WMD's in Iraq anyone? 



#17 Uncle Coulro

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 05:38 PM

Without going crazy, could someone describe why Iran and much of the Middle East are "enemies"?

They are both comprised of lot of judgmental, patriotic people seeking simple answers.



#18 china cat

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 05:41 PM

They are both comprised of lot of judgmental, patriotic people seeking simple answers.

 

oh snap!



#19 concert andy

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 05:42 PM

They are both comprised of lot of judgmental, patriotic people seeking simple answers.

 

Forget this shiznit, I dont like it here so I am leaving.  :lol:



#20 china cat

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 05:45 PM

Here's a question I have... (because I don't watch TV and I don't read much on world news...) why did they chemically attack in the first place?

 

not sure how helpful/accurate this is, if anyone else wants to vet it out.

 

http://www.washingto...rrassed-to-ask/



#21 Joker

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 05:48 PM

Coincidence? It's not like there's any reason for Israel to lead us deeper into the quagmire giggitygiggity

 

 

Securing the Northern Border

Syria challenges Israel on Lebanese soil. An effective approach, and one with which American can sympathize, would be if Israel seized the strategic initiative along its northern borders by engaging Hizballah, Syria, and Iran, as the principal agents of aggression in Lebanon, including by:

 

Israel also can take this opportunity to remind the world of the nature of the Syrian regime. Syria repeatedly breaks its word. It violated numerous agreements with the Turks, and has betrayed the United States by continuing to occupy Lebanon in violation of the Taef agreement in 1989. Instead, Syria staged a sham election, installed a quisling regime, and forced Lebanon to sign a "Brotherhood Agreement" in 1991, that terminated Lebanese sovereignty. And Syria has begun colonizing Lebanon with hundreds of thousands of Syrians, while killing tens of thousands of its own citizens at a time, as it did in only three days in 1983 in Hama.

 

Under Syrian tutelage, the Lebanese drug trade, for which local Syrian military officers receive protection payments, flourishes. Syria’s regime supports the terrorist groups operationally and financially in Lebanon and on its soil. Indeed, the Syrian-controlled Bekaa Valley in Lebanon has become for terror what the Silicon Valley has become for computers. The Bekaa Valley has become one of the main distribution sources, if not production points, of the "supernote" — counterfeit US currency so well done that it is impossible to detect.

Text:

Given the nature of the regime in Damascus, it is both natural and moral that Israel abandon the slogan "comprehensive peace" and move to containSyria, drawing attention to its weapons of mass destruction program, and rejecting "land for peace" deals on the Golan Heights.

 
  • striking Syria’s drug-money and counterfeiting infrastructure in Lebanon, all of which focuses on Razi Qanan.

     

    paralleling Syria’s behavior by establishing the precedent that Syrian territory is not immune to attacks emanating from Lebanon by Israeli proxy forces.

     

    striking Syrian military targets in Lebanon, and should that prove insufficient, striking at select targets in Syria proper.
  •  
  • Negotiations with repressive regimes like Syria’s require cautious realism. One cannot sensibly assume the other side’s good faith. It is dangerous for Israel to deal naively with a regime murderous of its own people, openly aggressive toward its neighbors, criminally involved with international drug traffickers and counterfeiters, and supportive of the most deadly terrorist organizations.

http://www.israeleco....org/strat1.htm

 

The neocons who wrote the above and those below are probably giddy with excitement knowing their plans are proceeding pretty much according to plan.

 

http://www.newameric...tter-040302.htm

 



#22 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 05:54 PM

The problem with that, Joker, is it nullifies some very important implications. Ones i dont believe the Israeli's are dumb enough to do.

 

You have several factions fighting not only Assad, but amongst themselves for control. With backing of Hezbollah (sp?), Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and even China...depending on the faction. This isn't as straight forward as "Israel needs it for safety reasons". Because if we topple Assad and the people that take over resemble what happened in Libya, Israel will find itself in a much more complicated position than having Assad (who is no threat to Israel) in power.



#23 Tim the Beek

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 05:59 PM

They are both comprised of lot of judgmental, patriotic people seeking simple answers.


:lol:



#24 Joker

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 06:12 PM

The problem with that, Joker, is it nullifies some very important implications. Ones i dont believe the Israeli's are dumb enough to do.

 

You have several factions fighting not only Assad, but amongst themselves for control. With backing of Hezbollah (sp?), Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and even China...depending on the faction. This isn't as straight forward as "Israel needs it for safety reasons". Because if we topple Assad and the people that take over resemble what happened in Libya, Israel will find itself in a much more complicated position than having Assad (who is no threat to Israel) in power.

They want the upheaval in Syria, which will in turn affect Iran, who they've already threatened to use their nukes against. If they're fighting amongst themselves there's no concerted effort to go after Israel. The more chaos and infighting in the region the less resistance when the real shit hits the fan.



#25 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 06:17 PM

They want the upheaval in Syria, which will in turn affect Iran, who they've already threatened to use their nukes against. If they're fighting amongst themselves there's no concerted effort to go after Israel. The more chaos and infighting in the region the less resistance when the real shit hits the fan.

 

Now this i can understand. An din fact, is even a "hushed" goal of Israel. Thats why they want the rebels armed adn fighting amongst themselves. To weaken Assad and themselves. I just can not see the US doing this strictly for Israel's benefit. There is an angle for us too. And in many ways, for others in the region.

 

I wont deny that Israel is most definitely lobbying washington for its own gains. We know that. if if the "tone" is not set on the selfish end of it. But there is more to this. Much more....



#26 Jabadoodle

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 07:07 PM

That's an extremely complex question...


Thanks for all that. Very helpful.



#27 Jabadoodle

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 07:09 PM

They are both comprised of lot of judgmental, patriotic people seeking simple answers.

 

 

Forget this shiznit, I dont like it here so I am leaving.   :lol:


:lol:



#28 Jabadoodle

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 07:39 PM

not sure how helpful/accurate this is, if anyone else wants to vet it out.

 

http://www.washingto...rrassed-to-ask/


 

 I read all of this. I have not closely followed what's happening in Syria, so I can not reliably say this is correct. What I can say it that is seems to be a clear, concise, well worded, reasoned, balanced, and humble (admitting that is it not the whole story) account of what's up.

I think it's got to be worth reading for anyone that wants their first primer.

 

Thanks, K.



#29 Tabbooma

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 09:24 PM

To level the playing field so Assad can be toppled faster, hopefully from within his own ranks when they get their back hard against the wall, shorten the war so it does not drag out, assad is going to lose eventually, kick his ass for using chemical weapons, get Turks involved.. Al Qaeda is not going to govern Syria

What outcome are we trying to achieve?

 

2/3 of the rebel groups are hard line Sunni or straight-up Al Qaeda linked. Do we want to strengthen them further? 

 

OK, now feel free to go back to your simplistic "War or no war" analysis.  :grin:



#30 Tabbooma

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 09:32 PM

Where is the evidence that the Saudis provided it, and the rebels had it... is Tabbooma missing something here... Who is we?

Who?

 

As it stands now, there is no coraborated evidence in any direction. We know the rebels had sarin gas in Turkey (they were caught with it). We have reports that say they used it (though on accident and that it was provided by Saudi Arabia). We have so far, classified hearsay provided by Israeli intelligence claiming it was Assad (you cant see that. it's above your pay grade). But we have no evidence at all who used it, and whether or not it was military grade sarin.

 

WMD's in Iraq anyone? 



#31 china cat

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 10:24 PM

WMD's in Iraq anyone? 

 

USS Maine sunk by the spanish (lie) and gulf of tonkin (lie) , babies thrown from incubators (lie), WMDs (lie)  but this time, we have the facts straight, yep.

 

 

 I read all of this. I have not closely followed what's happening in Syria, so I can not reliably say this is correct. What I can say it that is seems to be a clear, concise, well worded, reasoned, balanced, and humble (admitting that is it not the whole story) account of what's up.

I think it's got to be worth reading for anyone that wants their first primer.

 

Thanks, K.

 

yeah, it was helpful to me, though I always like a few others to vet info out.



#32 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 10:57 PM

Where is the evidence that the Saudis provided it, and the rebels had it... is Tabbooma missing something here... Who is we?

 

I didn't say there was evidence that Saudi's provided it. There were reports with interview that said it from rebels. There is in turn, no evidence presented that Assad used them. And that Jihadists in Turkey were caught by turkish police having sarin gas. That can be searched for the stories. 



#33 Tim the Beek

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 11:00 PM

I just cant understand from which angle the US wants to see this turn out.

 

It's a puzzle to me, too.

Often it's about following the money, but I don't see a likely outcome (other than a protracted, victorless civil war) that is in US/corporate interests.

I'm hoping it's not as simple as "Red Line" rhetoric having caught up with the President, and his ego demanding that he do something. But it worries me that that may be a big part of it. Not much else makes sense...



#34 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 05 September 2013 - 11:17 PM

It's a puzzle to me, too.

Often it's about following the money, but I don't see a likely outcome (other than a protracted, victorless civil war) that is in US/corporate interests.

I'm hoping it's not as simple as "Red Line" rhetoric having caught up with the President, and his ego demanding that he do something. But it worries me that that may be a big part of it. Not much else makes sense...

 

I really do not think, as much as i think this president is naive, that military actions would be conducted over vanity. I mean, Boner has backed this. Not that that says much to someone outside the paradigm, but still. It's NOT theater of the domestic kind like that here....there are severe repercussions involved here



#35 Tabbooma

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Posted 06 September 2013 - 01:12 AM

Than why do you keep posting something that is seemingly untrue, if it was true you can bet the Russian, Iranians and even USA repubs would be jumping all over this... Shoot Tabbooma could post that on the internet and sure someone would believe it

I didn't say there was evidence that Saudi's provided it. There were reports with interview that said it from rebels. There is in turn, no evidence presented that Assad used them. And that Jihadists in Turkey were caught by turkish police having sarin gas. That can be searched for the stories. 


#36 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 06 September 2013 - 11:21 AM

Than why do you keep posting something that is seemingly untrue, if it was true you can bet the Russian, Iranians and even USA repubs would be jumping all over this... Shoot Tabbooma could post that on the internet and sure someone would believe it

 

We do not know whether or not it is true. It is conflicting reports with the official narrative. The interviews can not be corroborated. Why does the White House continue to claim Assad is guilty? They can not prove that either.No evidence has been provided. Only the continuous hammering of what boils down to "'because we said so". But I do not see you questioning their say so. Is it an appeal to authority thing?



#37 Tim the Beek

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Posted 06 September 2013 - 12:12 PM

http://www.nytimes.c...orces.html?_r=0

 

 

The strikes would be aimed not at the chemical stockpiles themselves — risking a potential catastrophe — but rather the military units that have stored and prepared the chemical weapons and carried the attacks against Syrian rebels, as well as the headquarters overseeing the effort, and the rockets and artillery that have launched the attacks, military officials said Thursday.

 

Wait. I thought that part of the rationale for this was to destroy most of the stuff so that it wouldn't fall into the wrong hands.

Now we're going to just wipe out the people who have some measure of control over the stuff? In a country with an increasing number of fundamentalist Islamic militants on the ground?

:facepalm:



#38 Tim the Beek

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Posted 06 September 2013 - 12:24 PM

http://www.huffingto..._n_3877515.html

 

 

The United States has intercepted an order from an Iranian official instructing militants in Iraq to attack U.S. interests in Baghdad in the event the Obama administration launches a military strike in Syria, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

 

:facepalm:



#39 Jabadoodle

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Posted 06 September 2013 - 03:42 PM

Nobody is asking the right question about Syria...What outcome are we trying to achieve?

 

2/3 of the rebel groups are hard line Sunni or straight-up Al Qaeda linked. Do we want to strengthen them further? 

 

OK, now feel free to go back to your simplistic "War or no war" analysis.  :grin:

 

 

The outcome (whether you believe it's the "real" reason or not -- whether you agree with it or not -- and whether you believe the proposed plan achieves it or not) has been clearly stated.

It is not to strengthen the rebel groups or Assad. It is to show  Assad and the rest of the world that using chemical weapons will have some type of negative consequence to whoever decides to use them. 



#40 Uncle Coulro

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Posted 06 September 2013 - 04:14 PM

The outcome (whether you believe it's the "real" reason or not -- whether you agree with it or not -- and whether you believe the proposed plan achieves it or not) has been clearly stated.

It is not to strengthen the rebel groups or Assad. It is to show  Assad and the rest of the world that using chemical weapons will have some type of negative consequence to whoever decides to use them. 
Barry:
You can all just kiss my ass from now on.
Not me! I won't take this!
al-Assad - he's a dead man!
Rouhani? Dead!
Nasrallah?
 
Johnny Mac:
Dead!
Barry's right.
Psychotic ... but absolutely right.
We got to take these bastards.
We could fight them with conventional weapons.
That could take years and cost millions of lives.
In this case, I think we have to go all out.
I think this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part.
 
Barry:
We're just the guys to do it!
 
Nancy, Harry, Beaner, Eric:
Let's do it!
Let's do it!
Go! Go! Go!


#41 Tabbooma

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Posted 06 September 2013 - 04:17 PM

Tabbooma has not seen the evidence, only reported that the Germans spying or listening picked up some conversations ( kind of funny they did not like the USA listening to them ;) )  The French saying they picked up conversations and believe the USA initially reported it, not sure... Tabbooma has not seen all the evidence from the USA, lots f it is classified, Tabbooma will leave it up to congress and hopefully they base it on actual intelligence... Oh, Tabbooma read today on one of the shithouse walls today that if he called this number he could have a good time, turned out to be wrong number, Tabbooma fell for misinformation... It happens ;)

We do not know whether or not it is true. It is conflicting reports with the official narrative. The interviews can not be corroborated. Why does the White House continue to claim Assad is guilty? They can not prove that either.No evidence has been provided. Only the continuous hammering of what boils down to "'because we said so". But I do not see you questioning their say so. Is it an appeal to authority thing?


#42 concert andy

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Posted 06 September 2013 - 05:33 PM

Barry:
You can all just kiss my ass from now on.
Not me! I won't take this!
al-Assad - he's a dead man!
Rouhani? Dead!
Nasrallah?
 
Johnny Mac:
Dead!
Barry's right.
Psychotic ... but absolutely right.
We got to take these bastards.
We could fight them with conventional weapons.
That could take years and cost millions of lives.
In this case, I think we have to go all out.
I think this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part.
 
Barry:
We're just the guys to do it!
 
Nancy, Harry, Beaner, Eric:
Let's do it!
Let's do it!
Go! Go! Go!

 

 

Why is John McEnroe chiming in?



#43 In A Silent Way

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Posted 06 September 2013 - 05:53 PM

How can I get some nook tonight in Damascus?



#44 concert andy

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Posted 06 September 2013 - 06:44 PM

How can I get some snookie tonight in Damascus?


#45 Tim the Beek

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Posted 06 September 2013 - 06:56 PM

How can I get some nook tonight in Damascus?


Barnes and Noble has your back!



#46 Joker

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Posted 06 September 2013 - 06:56 PM

How can I get some snookie tonight in Damascus?

AgentOrange'd



#47 In A Silent Way

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Posted 06 September 2013 - 07:00 PM


Barnes and Noble has your back!

 

And they won't kindle the flames of war.



#48 Tim the Beek

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Posted 06 September 2013 - 07:01 PM

:facepalm:



#49 concert andy

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Posted 06 September 2013 - 07:09 PM

:picardfp:

 

It can get to serious around here, a little silliness goes a long way. IMO.



#50 china cat

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Posted 06 September 2013 - 10:44 PM

addresses some potential outcomes

 

http://www.commondre...ew/2013/09/06-7