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S&P 500 May Fall More Than 40% By Fall: Chris Martenson


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#1 concert andy

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 06:38 PM

 
 
 
Even though the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) are hovering at all-time highs, Chris Martenson, author of PeakProsperity.com and the “Crash Course” Series, is forecasting a major market correction.
 
Martenson predicts the S&P could fall 40% to 60% to the 600-800 level by this fall. His last major market call was in March 2008, before the financial crisis.
 
Related: U.S. Stock Market Is 'Overvalued, Overbought and Overbullish': John Hussman
 
The Daily Ticker’s Lauren Lyster sat down with Martenson at the 2013 Wine Country Conference in support of Les Turner ALS Foundation to get his market and economic predictions.
 
"I see recessionary signs all over the landscape. In particular, Europe is already in recession [and] Japan is already in recession," he says. "We are looking at global economic slowdown."
 
As for corporate earnings, a stronger U.S. dollar could bring down profits this year, Martenson believes. Corporate profits currently account for 11% of GDP, which is way outside the norm of 6% of U.S. growth. He's also bearish on the U.S. economy and sees weakness in sectors that have shown improvement like the housing market.
 
Will the Federal Reserve's $85 billion monthly stimulus program continue to inflate asset prices?
 
"Fundamentally there always has to be some connection between where markets actually are and their price," Martenson says. He believes the Fed's monetary policy has reached a point of diminishing returns and could result in "a pretty significant" market pullback.
 
Right now he's telling investors to sell in May and go away -- the same advice he gives every year.
 
"This is not the time to be greedy," Martenson notes.


#2 Tim the Beek

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 06:43 PM

Andy, have you watched Crash Course?



#3 concert andy

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 06:48 PM

I have not, but work in financial sector (investment back).  I like to think I know enough of what is going on. 



#4 JBetty

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 06:55 PM

Do you guys know what Chris Martenson looks like?



#5 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 06:57 PM

So, do you see the signs of a major correction coming? Or do you think he is inflating (pun intended) the results of the federal reserves policies (we'll leave legislation out, even though it too is causing massive problems)?



#6 Tim the Beek

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 06:58 PM

Do you guys know what Chris Martenson looks like?

 

If we didn't before, we would from the video Andy posted. :rolleyes:



#7 Tim the Beek

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 06:59 PM

If you mean you think you might know him, I believe LJ (the chef, not the doll) said she went to school with him.



#8 Tim the Beek

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 07:00 PM

I have not, but work in financial sector (investment back).  I like to think I know enough of what is going on. 

 

I've been in Accounting and Finance for close to 15 years, and I found a great deal of benefit in watching the series.



#9 JBetty

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 07:10 PM

:rotf:  

Holy cannoli that is him!   

He was a roommate with two of my high school friends in the early eighties.

Lots of crazy parties at The Hippie House.

I have some really funny video of us back in the good old days.

Wonder how much he'd pay to make "The Cow Patty Open" footage disappear?   :rolling:



#10 concert andy

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 07:14 PM

So, do you see the signs of a major correction coming? Or do you think he is inflating (pun intended) the results of the federal reserves policies (we'll leave legislation out, even though it too is causing massive problems)?

 

 

I do think a correction is coming, but I do not think it will be as drastic as he claims.  The S&P is doing way to well.



#11 concert andy

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 07:16 PM

I've been in Accounting and Finance for close to 15 years, and I found a great deal of benefit in watching the series.

 

 

I did go to the sight, but I am now taking my grad class online (DBA course).  This is week 2, and runs through 1st week of June.  Glad no Phish shows this year around that time to intefere with my final.

 

The point being, I doubt I will have time in the near future.