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Let's talk jobs....


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#1 concert andy

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 02:02 PM

I know a lot of people do not like Obama for what ever reason. For Obamacare, drones, socialist, Kenyan, whatever reasons.

But why has our Unemployment decreased in past two years while Europe;s unemployment keeps rising.

I heard a commentator on Stephen Colbert that stated the Eurozone will be looking at the Obama plan for jobs since it seems to be working better than the Eurozone plan for jobs.

Eurozone unemployment rate hits new high in October

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#2 hoagie

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 02:14 PM

:facepalm:

*This is a pre-Joker/TASB facepalm...

#3 concert andy

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 02:19 PM

I am not saying Obama is right on jobs. I just want to know what people's opinion is of these Legit statistics.

#4 Tim the Beek

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 02:34 PM

I put about as much stock in the unemployment numbers as I do the inflation numbers, so I wouldn't refer to them as "legit."

My guess is that what improvement we're seeing is largely cyclical. Maybe some of it is due to Keynesian, Obamian, Bushian money slingin', which concerns me in the long term.

#5 concert andy

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 02:40 PM

I put about as much stock in the unemployment numbers as I do the inflation numbers, so I wouldn't refer to them as "legit."

My guess is that what improvement we're seeing is largely cyclical. Maybe some of it is due to Keynesian, Obamian, Bushian money slingin', which concerns me in the long term.


I said Legit, because the website sources is not a news website, but a website dedicated to the economy statistics.

#6 Tim the Beek

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 02:47 PM

I get that. But having read a little bit about how the BLS models things, I don't have much faith in their numbers.

#7 TEO

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 03:59 PM

Similar sentiment here, I'd guess we'd need to double those unemployment rates to be closer to reality.

#8 Depends

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 04:05 PM

Statistics are like bikinis... What they cover up is more interesting than what they reveal.

The unemployment figures only show people that are collecting. Not recent college grads unable to find that first job, not people who have exhausted benefits. Comparing to Spain might be apples to oranges. What is thier number based on?

#9 concert andy

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 04:08 PM

Statistics are like bikinis... What they cover up is more interesting than what they reveal.

The unemployment figures only show people that are collecting. Not recent college grads unable to find that first job, not people who have exhausted benefits. Comparing to Spain might be apples to oranges. What is thier number based on?


I am not comparing to Spain, I used spain because their unemployment is at 25% and had a nice graph (same as other two).

I am more talking about Europe and how that has increased 2%, while the US has decreased 2%.

I am not talking about the hidden numbers here. I am aware this does not count people who have just given up hope, or who have dropped out, or whatever...

I am just saying that on pure numbers why is the US doing better than Europe?

#10 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 04:19 PM

I don't know of any simple answer. I don't much pay attention to Europes unemployment, GDP or govt. policy regarding economics.

What I can say, is that if we are going purely on the numbers, we'd first need to have an honest count on unemployment to find the true number, because 7.9% isn't it for the US. I'd have to research Europe more to make any speculative, or even half-way data point guided conclusions.

#11 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 04:20 PM

:picardfp:

*This is a pre-Joker/TASB facepalm...


I see you brought your intelligence to the discussion. Well done.

#12 concert andy

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 04:25 PM

I don't know of any simple answer. I don't much pay attention to Europes unemployment, GDP or govt. policy regarding economics.

What I can say, is that if we are going purely on the numbers, we'd first need to have an honest count on unemployment to find the true number, because 7.9% isn't it for the US. I'd have to research Europe more to make any speculative, or even half-way data point guided conclusions.


Well, my original point was, that Europe may start implementing, whatever Obama is doing, instead of what they are doing.

Not saying it is right, just stating this is what I have heard.

I know Europe has been dragging our economy down for the past year (esp Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy).

#13 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 06:06 PM

I thought you were asking why our UE is going down the last two years and why the EU UE keeps going up. And again, i don't know that there is a simple answer. On a realted note though, I did come across this gem today while reading the Mises Daily.

http://www.huffingto..._n_1609805.html

Paul Krugman: Prepare For Alien Invasion -- And Spend Our Way To Economic Recovery

Economist Paul Krugman has a simple solution to America's economic woes: Prepare for an alien invasion.
Arguing that the United States successfully ended the Great Depression with government spending, he provided an interesting idea about how to replicate that economic feat on Tuesday at the Take Back the American Dream conference in Washington, D.C.
"If you actually look at what took us out of the Great Depression," the Princeton University professor said in an interview with Chris Hayes of MSNBC. "It was Europe's entry into World War II and the U.S. buildup that began in advance."
"So if we could get something that could cause the government to say, ‘Oh, never mind those budget things; let’s just spend and do a bunch of stuff.' So my fake threat from space aliens is the other route,” Krugman said before a laughing crowd. “I’ve been proposing that.”

The Princeton professor and New York Times columnist is a well-known fan of science fiction, which might explain his imaginative plan to spur an economic recovery.
Krugman has offered up his space alien proposal before. Last year he told CNN about a "Twilight Zone" episode in which "scientists fake an alien threat in order to achieve world peace." He told CNN, "Well, this time ... we need it in order to get some fiscal stimulus."


ROFLMFAO!!!!

#14 Tim the Beek

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 06:09 PM

Because $16.3 Trillion isn't enough of a boot on the necks of future generations.

Christ...

#15 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 06:12 PM

But Tim. An alien invasion, man!! We can spend our way to prosperity by preparing for an alien invasion!!

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#16 Tim the Beek

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 06:20 PM

Funyuns!

#17 PeaceFrog

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 07:17 PM

The Mises Daily :lol:

#18 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 08:31 PM

Laugh it up. My economists aren't suggesting we prepare for a fake alien invasion to stimulate. That would be the lefts go to guy.

#19 concert andy

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 08:35 PM

I googled him and that article is a little bit on the satirical side as a point of view.


Paul Krugman and Nate Silver agree: New York Times reporting is ‘lazy’ and ‘stupid’

Read more: http://dailycaller.c.../#ixzz2DjxRJhel



Paul Krugman: Obama Reelection A Victory For The 'Real America'

http://www.huffingto..._n_2089017.html


A link to his NY Times Blog
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/

#20 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 08:47 PM

A little bit? He's advocated such nonsense several times in several venues. And is overall position is that "austerity" ( :lmao: ) which none of the EU and neither do we have in anyway, is a failed policy and that more spending and stimulus is needed.

He's dead serious. (further, none of your links show that he was being satirical in stated such nonsense.)

#21 PeaceFrog

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 09:24 PM

if the rich people of this world really believed there was a threat of an alien invasion, they would be a lot more willing to cough up their fair share of taxes in order to preserve their own asses.

I don't even know what to think about the fact that you were unable to discern something this blatantly obvious on your own.

and for that, you truly deserve this: :facepalm:

#22 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 09:30 PM

You obviously, and completely without any surprise, missed both the point Krugman was making and why he was making it.

Color. Me. Shocked.

Hint: It had nothing to do with taxing the "fair share" of the rich.

Try again.

#23 PeaceFrog

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 09:34 PM

OK yeah, whatever... sounds to me like you're the one who missed the bus.

#24 PeaceFrog

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 09:41 PM

and you say that Chris Matthews is a dullard :lol:

#25 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 10:37 PM

Maybe someone with the patients to deal with your pestilence of a personality will explain it to you. I have no desire to herp derps about it.

#26 Joker

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Posted 30 November 2012 - 10:45 PM



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#27 PeaceFrog

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 12:01 AM

Maybe someone with the patients to deal with your pestilence of a personality will explain it to you. I have no desire to herp derps about it.


I'd be a doctor if only I had the patients.

#28 PeaceFrog

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 12:14 AM

this is like the bizarro universe where the two biggest Jack-asses are accusing me of being a troll.

the fact that the two of you either a. don't vote, or b. vote third party is proof that the system is working.

#29 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 12:48 AM

I've never seen such intellectual kryptonite.

#30 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 12:56 AM

You are a troll. Or dumb as bricks. Both can apply.

#31 concert andy

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 12:59 AM

You obviously, and completely without any surprise, missed both the point Krugman was making and why he was making it.

Color. Me. Shocked.

Hint: It had nothing to do with taxing the "fair share" of the rich.

Try again.


He is basically saying that the government should pay our way out of any mess. With the idea, come on bro, we are good for it?

Not sure it is a failed policy though, Bush spent like crazy and for a while it worked. Oh wait, then that failed. :lol:

#32 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 01:04 AM

I'd say what he is really relaying in there is that disasters, wars, etc, in a moribund and sluggish economy, need to be shocked into life through massive monetary injection of govt. spending. and that budgets and deficits/debt don't matter and will rebound once this magical injection of M1 and M2 materializes in the overall economy.

Of course, he's full of fucking shit like it's rare.

#33 concert andy

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 01:04 AM

Because $16.3 Trillion isn't enough of a boot on the necks of future generations.

Christ...


Exactly. While I did vote for Obama, I do fear the spending of the Dems.

I despise the right has a stick ups its ass about social issues, because they are at least trying to be physically responsible. Poorly of course, but well that is US Politics for ya.

#34 concert andy

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 01:07 AM

I'd say what he is really relaying in there is that disasters, wars, etc, in a moribund and sluggish economy, need to be shocked into life through massive monetary injection of public works. and that budgets and deficits/debt dont matter and will rebound once this magical injection of M1 and M2 materializes int he overall economy.

Of course, he's full of fucking shit like it's rare.


Yes, wasn't that part secret rationale for Iraq war too?

I think that some of his other stuff points to spending for the sake of the economy, and that the economy being healthy will repay for what we borrow\spend today. Or am I cherry picking here?

#35 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 01:22 AM

Yes it was. The Iraq war and the Republicans is another case of the same old. They still eat it.

Well, what you propose on repayment has NEVER materialized. So in theory it might sound good but in reality it never happens. The same in Keynes theory that "austerity" should be done during the booms. It never happens. There is always a new reason to glutton like overspend.

#36 concert andy

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 01:56 AM

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Just a touch of research shows that this has almost always been the case, with Europe having high unemployment for years now.


http://research.stlo..._2012-11-09.pdf

This article touches on how Europe was hit worse, hence them dragging on our economy.

#37 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 02:00 AM

Can you break this theory down? I mean the correlation/causation.

#38 concert andy

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 02:16 AM

Can you break this theory down? I mean the correlation/causation.


Not really, I am just looking at the trend of Europe seemingly having high unemployment historically,

Cause in Europe? From conversations I had back in 1997 discussing from a European sense why going to the Euro was to risky. He was dead on with all of it. Just that certain countries are not as strong economically and the big countries will end up having to save the smaller countries. Causing resentment and possible uncivilized behavior.

Funny thing during this discussion someone got all, this is too serious, and we both shot him down as the immature one for not recognizing the serious nature.

From what I have heard dealing with people in many of these countries. I used to do operations for clearing trades in every country in the world. In pakistan, they literally had a guy on a bike delivering physical notes. And I would have to follow up with him somehow. But I would talk to my contacts almost daily in each country and I would ask about life and the differences in cultures.

I also spent a week in a small town in Italy. The Siesta is not unique to Spain, it was in Italy also. Everyone worked 9-12 Came home made food, then went back from 2-6 or 7. Or not at all.

And I am sure you have the lazy French, or something along those lines. English people will tell you they are lazy, flat out. I won't but where this comes from.

Point being is I have a touch of insight, not an expert in any ways, but there is not drive to succeed for whatever reason, and to many people like living on family the dole, etc...

So I do think the unemployment rate there being a half point higher than it was in 1997 is somewhat normal for that region/economy.

With Germany being the standard and now trying to make the Euro work, and England laughing because of the value of the pound, and there spending power in every other country.

#39 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 01:06 PM

Interesting take.

#40 concert andy

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 03:33 PM

I try.

Another big cause to Europe today is the Greek Olympics Greece borrowed out the arse to make that happen and are now paying for it with massive government cuts which has led to 25% unemployment.

http://www.businessw...greeces-decline

Part of me wants to connect the dots to Spain's current unemployment and the Barcelona 1992 Olympics, but that could be a reach.

With the idea of during the boom they did not pay down the debt.

#41 Tim the Beek

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 06:16 PM

Exactly. While I did vote for Obama, I do fear the spending of the Dems.

I despise the right has a stick ups its ass about social issues, because they are at least trying to be physically responsible. Poorly of course, but well that is US Politics for ya.


I don't think they're really trying...Bush's 2 wars (one arguably justifiable, but not for as long as it's gone on) and the biggest expansion of an entitlement program since LBJ say differently...

Tax cut and spend is just as bad as "tax and spend" in my book.

#42 concert andy

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 07:24 PM

I don't think they're really trying...Bush's 2 wars (one arguably justifiable, but not for as long as it's gone on) and the biggest expansion of an entitlement program since LBJ say differently...

Tax cut and spend is just as bad as "tax and spend" in my book.


True, but "now" they are serious. :lol:

#43 TakeAStepBack

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 08:08 PM

:lol:


Yeah, sure they are.

#44 concert andy

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Posted 01 December 2012 - 08:35 PM

Come on, we are super cereal.

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