Tropical Storm Sandy
Started by
In A Silent Way
, Oct 23 2012 03:11 PM
660 replies to this topic
#5
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- VibeTribe
- 23,312 posts
- LocationShoreline, CT
Posted 23 October 2012 - 03:17 PM
By Friday, Sandy should be over warm waters in the Central Bahamas, but only modest re-intensification by 10 - 20 mph should occur, due to high wind shear. At that point, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast. The trough may steer Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL models. However, an alternative solution, shown by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, is for the trough to inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits New England early next week with a central pressure of 948 mb and winds near hurricane-force. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are off by a full day in their predictions of when the storm would arrive, with the 06Z NOGAPS model predicting Sandy's heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina's Outer Banks on Sunday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF model forecast predicts that Sandy will arrive in New England on Monday night.
#20
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- VibeTribe
- 869 posts
Posted 23 October 2012 - 11:45 PM
Lee Goldberg of Eyewitness News Weather just said there's good chance Sandy will be sucked up by the east coast by the Jet Stream, collide with a Canadian Cold Front, and dump lots of SNOW in PA and NYS away from the coast. He uttered the words 3 FEET! 
#27
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- VibeTribe
- 2,067 posts
- LocationA peaceful place, or so it looks from space
Posted 24 October 2012 - 03:24 PM
aren't you the one who said to your electricity "let's never fight again" ? Â
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See Nancy??? This is why I NEED you!! You reel me in when I'm getting cockky. I *do* love you electricity and I want you....no I *need* you in my life!!! Please don't leave me. We can work this out
#32
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- VibeTribe
- 23,312 posts
- LocationShoreline, CT
Posted 24 October 2012 - 03:55 PM
Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm for the mid-Atlantic and New England
On Friday, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast and trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic. The Central Atlantic trough may be strong enough to pull Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the official NHC forecast, and the 06Z GFS, 00Z UKMET, 00Z Canadian, and 06Z HWRF models (00Z is 8 pm EDT, and 06Z is 2 am EDT.) However, an alternative solution, shown by the 00Z ECMWF, 06Z GFDL, and 06Z NOGAPS models, is for Sandy to get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 - 70 mph. Such a storm would likely cause massive power outages and over a billion dollars in damage, as trees still in leaf take out power grids, and heavy rains and coastal storm surges create damaging flooding. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. A similar meteorological situation occurred in October 1991, when Hurricane Grace became absorbed by a Nor'easter, becoming the so-called "Perfect Storm" that killed 13 people and did over $200 million in damage in the Northeast U.S.
When might Sandy arrive in the mid-Atlantic and New England?
The models vary significantly in their predictions of when Sandy might arrive along the U.S. coast. The 06Z NOGAPS model predicts Sandy's heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina's Outer Banks on Saturday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF model predicts that Sandy's rains won't affect North Carolina until Sunday, with the storm making landfall in New Jersey on Monday night. The GFDL model is in-between these extremes, taking Sandy ashore in Delolaware on Monday morning. The trough of low pressure that Sandy will be interacting with just moved ashore over the Western U.S. this morning, and got sampled by the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of land-based balloon-borne radiosondes for the first time. One of the reasons the models have been in such poor agreement on the long-term fate of Sandy is that the strength of this trough has not been very well known, since it has been over the ocean where we have limited data. Now that the trough is over land, it will be better sampled, and the next set of 12Z model runs, due out this afternoon between 2 pm - 4pm EDT, will hopefully begin to converge on a common solution. I'll have an update this afternoon once the 12Z model runs are in.
WE'RE SO FUCKED!
#50
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- VibeGuide
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- 11,415 posts
VibeGuide
Posted 25 October 2012 - 03:21 PM
I'm booking rooms at a nearby hotel this time around. They got power back a week before we did.
Probably a good call. If I remember correctly, your area got slammed by last year's Halloween storm. Hope this year isn't a repeat.
